Boycott Drudge!

Ok, very quick post before I have to run and pick-up the family.  Drudge is even more over the top this year than in the past.  His sensational headlines typically don’t meet the fine print.  This morning he posted a headline stating Obama is planning a massive victory celebration, when in fact the article simply stated he had picked a place (as McCain has) to host his party.

Second, the headline this afternoon that states Gallup has Obama up by only two points is factually accurate, but not totally the truth.  Gallup is running three different sets of numbers right now:

Registered Voters – typically what has been used in the past for reporting (shows Obama up 9)

Likely Voters (traditional) – this is what Drudge is posting. This uses old algorithms to determine likely voters.  Obama is up 2.

Likley Voters (new method) – This tries to account for the massive voter registration and cell phone users.  Obama is up 7 in that poll.

So which one is correct? Gallup doesn’t know and won’t pick one.   ALl the pollsters are using an average between traditional and the new method..which would put Obama up about 4.5 points.  Gallup typically tracks with a bit of conservative bias (I think about 2 points according to Nate Silver and Pollster – I will check later tonight).  If that’s true, Obama is still up 4.5-7 points.

The cell phone users and new registrants are making it tough for the pollsters to determine who is going to vote.  Gallups traditional method is based heavily on whether you voted in the last election.  Obviously, that may not catch younger voters or new registrants.  

I am not saying the old method is wrong, but recongize it’s limitations.  Regardless, Drudge continues to be a shill for the GOP.  I’d stay away and go to Digg.com to get the latest news.

I apologize for grammar and spelling – will correct later (along with adding appropriate link references).  The headlines infuriated me and wanted to do a quick blog.

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