The Liberal Crab’s Poll of “Poll of Polls” – 20 October 2008

Popular Vote

Obama –  50.4% +5.5%

McCain – 49.9

Electoral Vote

Obama – 361

McCain – 177

As predicted yesterday, Obama’s popular vote total did tic up by .5%, back over 50%.  As well, McCain, was nearly flat, gaining .2% since yesterday.  There was general movement towards Obama across multiple polls today.  Obama continues to trade in the 50% range where he’s been since the poll started over a week ago.  The slight up-tic might be a result of the Powell endorsment (we’ll have a better idea tomorrow) or simply the general fluctuations in the polls.  McCain has legitimately tightened the race by about 1.5% in the last eight days, but this wasn’t unexpected and he still hasn’t broken across the 45-46% ceiling of the general pollsters’ consensus.  It’s also interesting to note, that some believe that McCain may have given up the popular vote campaign, and focusing on a strategy to get to 270 Electoral Votes.

The Electoral map continues to remain very steady.  As I’ve said for the last couple of days, I expect some tightening by mid week.  In fact, new polls in Ohio and West Virginia may start pushing those states back to toss-up, reducing Obama’s total.  If he can get through mid-week without much drop, I suspect that the improving popular vote numbers haven’t done anything to help McCain in the Electoral College.  It would probably mean his base is getting stronger, which is concentrated in ‘red states’.

Another day down, and not much change.  This grows increasingly important each day.  Wednesday should be a watershed day to determine where the election is heading.  Powell’s endorsement will be fully vetted, any movement from McCain’s tightening should show up, and there will be a lot of polls out between Today and Wednesday that will help tell the story.


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