The Liberal Crab’s Poll of “Poll of Polls” – 21 October 2008

Popular Vote

Obama –  50.5% +6.8%

McCain – 43.7%

Electoral Vote

Obama – 360

McCain – 178

Great news today from the polling front.  Obama had his best day in over week – or actually, McCain had his worst day.  Obama remained static going from 50.4% to 50.5%.  However, McCain dropped 1.2%.  There are a couple of theories at work here.  One is that the Powell endorsement has had a real effect.  Today would be the first day you’d see that impact.  The second is that McCain again bumped up against his ceiling and is dropping off.  Since we didn’t see much change in Obama’s number, I tend to think it was McCain was bumping up against his ceiling.  Now, don’t get comfortable with the new lead.  This decline shows McCain’s ‘soft support’ and will ebb and flow based on the news cycle.  For Obama, the good news is he remains at 50%.  I’d feel more comfortable if we started to see some of the independent breaking for Obama and push his ceiling a bit higher.

All that being said, and as Racheal Maddow reminded me a few minutes ago, the only thing that matters is the electoral vote.  Obama continues to lead with about 360 electoral votes.  However, polls in Floirda and Ohio have tightened a bit.  I am no polling expert, but as I keep persisting, I think tomorrow will be the day that will determine whether or not Obama’s slight dip in the polls will have filtered down to the state races.


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