The Liberal Crab’s Poll of “Poll of Polls” – 23 October 2008

Popular Vote

Obama – 50.9% +7.5%

McCain – 43.3%

Electoral College

Obama – 354

McCain – 184

Obama is near his Poll of “Poll of Polls” all-time high of 51.0%  McCain is now below his previous low of 43.6%.  As a result, Obama is enjoying his largest popular vote lead since the inception of the poll 12 days ago (wow – and 11 more to go).  Not too much to comment on today.  A majority of the individual tracking polls showed improvement for Obama.  Many of them are showing him near the top of his all time support – some polls have him upwards of 53%!.  No Democrat has won a majority of the popular vote since Carter in 1976.  One of the biggest take-aways is the ‘undecideds’ have dropped below 7%.  If Obama can maintain his support level, all undecideds could break to McCain and still not sway the popular vote.  It’s becoming very clear Obama will take the popular vote, win or lose.  Looking at the Electoral College, it remains consistent.  A slight uptick for Obama today can be explained by improving performance in polls released today in Ohio and Virginia.

With eleven campaign days left – McCain has to reverse course in the five biggest Battleground States.  This includes erasing a 8-10% lead in Pennsylvania.  That means McCain has about two days in each state.  Obama only needs to focus on maintaining only one of those states and he will win the election.  The fact he continues to campaign on Red State territory seems to indicate he doesn’t feel McCain can make that much ground yet across all the Battlegrounds.

Finally, I expect the polls will probably show a little closure on Saturday, Sunday and Monday as Obama is taking a day off of campaigning and McCain will be able to get out his message, relatively unfiltered.  The one caveat is that message may be interrupted by Palin’s testimony on Friday for Troopergate II investigation.

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