The Liberal Crab’s Poll of “Poll of Polls” – 30 October 2008

Popular Vote

Obama – 50.4% +6.1%

McCain – 44.3%

Electoral Vote

Obama – 360

McCain – 178

The race for the popular vote has some what steadied out now.  McCain was down .1% and Obama was even.  This is the fourth straight day where McCain has been between 43.3% and 43.4%.  Not much movement.  He’s got four campaigning days left, which means he needs to gain 1.5% every day.  But looking over the 19 days the poll has reported, Obama is down .2% and McCain up .6% – a net of less than 1%.  Looking at the polls today, they were flat to slightly leaning toward Obama.  That’s a good sign.  Some of the Poll of Polls has Obama above 50%, some right below 50%.  That threshold is important as it wouldn’t matter how the undecideds broke – particularly with his lead in the Electoral College.  I suspect the polls will point up slightly for Obama tomorrow, based on his Obama-on-the-air-all-the-time technique he’s been employing.  I do caution, I believe there is probably another 2% of McCain support that will ‘come home’ to him prior to the election.  I also believe Obama will stay at about 50%.  The one question – why can’t McCain gain back that 2%?  I think there is an aspect to the McCain support that hasn’t been analyzed yet and maybe influencing why he can’t get above 45%.

Is there anything really to say about the Electoral College?  It really hasn’t changed.  The state polls are probably trending more to Obama.  At the very least, they aren’t tightening.  McCain still needs to flip six states in four days – this includes winning Pennsylvania.  Obama has 311 Electoral Votes in states where he has at least 50% of the vote.  McCain can still win – but everything has to go right for him.  But it’s not impossible


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