The Liberal Crab’s Poll of “Poll of Polls” – 28 October 2008

Popular Vote

Obama – 51.1% +6.7%

McCain – 44.3%

Electoral College

Obama – 362

McCain – 176

In the popular vote analysis, McCain continues to march – though slowly – up the polls.  He gained another .4%, and broke the 44% threshold.  Obama, on the other hand, has remained relatively flat.  Today he dropped .1%.  That comes after three days at the same level of support.  Since Friday, when Obama’s gap between McCain and him was at it’s zenith, Obama’s gap has closed by 1.2% from from 7.9% to 6.7%.  For Obama, there is still a lot of good news.  First, we expected the polls to tighten and this tightening is so slight that many pollsters are arguing that this is just statistical noise.  I tend to disagree since we’ve seen three days of improvement by McCain.  However, to take a popular vote lead, McCain needs to pick up 1.1% in the polls each day through Election Day.  In the three days McCain has made up ground, he’s picked up .4%/day.  In the three days since he started gaining he’s been able to make up only the amount he needs to close each day.  Again, not impossible, but without a significant shift in the trajectory, he can’t win the popular vote.  Removing my two degrees of separation from the actual polls, the individual trackers have either gone up, down, or remained static.  For the most part, the polls that have had the bigger lead for Obama have tightened (Daily Kos/Research 2000, Gallup) , while the polls with the smaller leads have showed Obama opening up a little more lead (IBD).  And yes, the ones in the middle seem to be relatively static (Rasumssen, Zogby, Battleground).  I continue to maintain that while the polls are tightening, they are only regressing to their equilibrium of Obama at 50% and McCain at 46%.

On the Electoral College, the story remains the same as it has in the 16 days we’ve been running the poll.  However, I am expecting to see a drop from the 360’s to the to the 330’s by the weekend.  North Carolina, Missouri, and Indiana appear to have moved from Obama to toss-up and some polls have Indiana already back in McCain’s column.  But that still puts Obama up by 60 Electoral Votes from what he needs to win.  Obama could still lose two out of the four – Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and Pennsylvania and win by 12-25 votes.  That would still give him some cushion if he didn’t win all the other toss-up states he is currently winning.  Really, it appears that only North Carolina, Missouri, and Indiana are the only ones really tightening.  Indiana is the only one that is showing some strong leanings for McCain.

Six days out, McCain still needs the same eight states we’ve been discussing for over two weeks now.  That is less than a day’s focus per state – and barely one state/day with Palin and McCain in different states.  At this point, he is putting all his eggs into the Pennsylvania basket.  He will let his ads, surrogates, and robocalls do his work in the other seven states he is tied or behind in – to help win him the election.

Also, please see my post at the Daily Kos on the race tightening.  I got props (not literally) from David Gergen this evening – agreeing with my take on ‘Obama poll bumps’.


McCain’s Foreign Policy Adviser – Sarah Palin

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Umm, yeah – from Politco:

John McCain said Wednesday that he has turned to Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin for advice on foreign policy issues “many times in the past.”

“She has the world view that I have and is very highly qualified and very knowledgeable,” McCain said during an interview on NPR.

“I’ve turned to her for advice many times in the past, I can’t imagine turning to Senator [Barack] Obama or Senator [Joe] Biden because they’ve been wrong,” the Arizona senator said of his running mate. “I certainly wouldn’t turn to them, and I’ve already turned to Governor Palin particularly on energy issues and I’ve appreciated her background and knowledge on that and many other issues.”

Seriously?  I mean, it’s one thing to defend your running mate. However, I really didn’t think McCain was so out of touch with reality that he would lie and say he uses her as a foreign policy adviser.   This means one of two things – either he is so out of touch he doesn’t realize how pathetic her foreign policy knowledge is or he is so out of touch as to what the electorate thinks of her.  I mean, its a bit of a stretch even in her defense, to claim she’s a foreign policy adviser.

Random Thoughts During McCain’s Speech

Talking about political outsiders? Saying Washington changed those who came there.  So who does that affect more – those with 26 years of Senate experience or those with 4 years. Hmmm….

Wait – praise Obama and then attack him?

does anyone really believe the rhetoric?  Obama will raise taxes, limit businesses, create poor health insurance?  Really.  Apparently Obama can’t do absolutely anything right. he gets into the heart of it. Reducing the 2nd highest tax rate (that’s my rate).  But doesn’t mention helping the lower income – oh wait…there is the trickle down economics thought.

Funny – fact checking said his plan would raise taxes too – nearly as much as Obama.  That’s not what he’s saying though.

From the Daily Kos: “And as John McCain’s speech enters its 10th hour, it can be said that we’ve learned a lot tonight. He was a POW. He is a maverick. And Sarah Palin can kill a moose with her bare hands. The only thing we don’t know is whether he used Max Factor or Revlon.”

Really? Does Obama REALLY wants schools to answer to ‘entrenched bureacrats’?  Hmmm…ok.  Man – Obama is evil.

Wait – is he campaigning againts Bush or Obama.  I mean he wants to reduce sending money overseas.  Last time I checked, it’s at the President’s request.

Man – the Republicans can’t wait to drill holes all over the Country.  Fortunately…he won’t have any more success than his predecessor had. Why? BECAUSE HE CAN’T MAKE LAW.

So I am curious…do the Republicans really not care about ANY facts? I thought McCain was a moral character.

more from Daily Kos Live blog: “McCain says (paraphrasing), “We’re going to stop sending $700 billion a year to countries who don’t like us.” Unsaid…because we can’t afford it with the $12 billion a month we’re spending in Iraq.

And now the GOP faithful are going crazy because they’re going to drill for oil in St. Paul. Whoo hoo!”

He talks accountability – is that part of the Keating 5 participation?

Ok…I know he is a war hero..but he spends way too much time on that. Seriously…that means nothing about how good a president he will be.

ahaha – “Is it…could it be…is he finally winding this thing down?  Oh wait…it’s time to remind everyone that he was a POW. Thank God he’s gotten over not wanting to talk about it. Which makes you wonder, if he wasn’t ever a POW, this convention would have been over in 10 minutes.” another Daily Kos comment