The Liberal Crab’s Poll of “Poll of Polls” – 31 October 2008

Popular Vote

Obama – 50.5% +6.3

McCain – 44.2%

Electoral College

Obama – 356

McCain – 182

Good news from the popular voting front.  It appears that McCain’s march to tighten the popular vote has stalled out over the last few days.  Obama picked up .1% and McCain dropped .1% since yesterday.  For five days, McCain’s support has remained between 44.3-44.4%.  Unless the polls are incorrect, it looks like McCain’s ceiling may have been slightly lower than the 46% we saw back in September.  The bottom line is that Obama’s support has been solid above the 50% line.  This is great news as it guarantees a popular vote win (providing the numbers hold), regardless how the late independents break.  I tend to think they will break for McCain, but it won’t be in the 75% range.  Also remember, that this is a two person horse race in most polls.  Add Barr and Nader and I think you will see a net -1% for McCain.  McCain now has to make up over 2% per day to capture the popular vote lead.  That looks very unlikely.

We finally see some movement in the Electoral College numbers.  Obama’s lost 4 more EV’s and that’s a total of 9 since last week.  This has been soley the result of a gradual move from each pollster  of Indiana from Obama to McCain.  For the last week I’ve warned we’d probably see Obama finish in the 330’s-340’s for the final poll on Monday.  I still think that will happen based on where Missouri and North Carolina end up (a total of 26 electoral votes).   Regardless, everything remains stable.  The polls don’t appear tightening to any significant degree. Pennsylvania remains solid.  Colorado and Nevada have strengthened for Obama.  Virginia also remains steady.  Obama is also now looking at outside chances of picking up Montana, North Dakota and perhaps Arizona.  The bigger news is that McCain hasn’t pressured any states that Obama ‘needs’ to win back into a tight race.

As my previous post has indicated, if you believe the polls (and I do) then this race is essentially over.  I think even if there was an October surprise, it would be difficult to have McCain come back (depending on what the surprise was).  The only type of surprise that probably could cost Obama the election is one that directly implicates him in something nefarious or awful.  Looking at how the Bin Laden tape of 2004 and the drunk driving arrest affected the last two races, it probably moved the race only a 1-2%.  That would still give Obama a comfortable lead.


Tooting my Own Horn?

My analysis last night on the six daily national tracking polls beat Dailykos and Pollster to the punch – the did their analysis this morning!!  They did the same aggregation I did with the polls.  Their conclusion?  Basically the same as mine – the race is stable and tightening has been non-existent.  You can see my post below this one.

So maybe I am not out in left field – eh?

Also intersting to note – my site gives me stats on how people came to find  my posts.  The absolute majority of the searches yesterday was about the AP poll and ‘bias’.  Looks like a lot of scared Democrats or hopeful Republicans recognize the poll as an outlier and were trying to make heads or tails whether to get worked up about it or not.  Speaking of which, polling data today – at the EV/state and national level are very strong for Obama.  More this evening, after all polls are released.