Article: The Telegraph – Financial Crisis

An article from the Telegraph in London provides some good comentary on the significance of not passing this bail-out package:

Financial crisis: Western world will become significantly less wealthy

In one fell swoop, the House of Representatives has applied a sledgehammer to the American economy. The staggering plunge in the value of publicly quoted stocks in the US last night – a $1.2 trillion fall – shows more clearly than anything else just how much it had been holding out for a financial bail-out.

The article is less about politics and more about the reality of the situation.  This article goes beyond politics, and thus beyond what my blog intends to cover.  However, per much feedback I’ve been getting about my recent support of the bail-out – I’d figure I provide another article that helps illustrate why I think this is a nescessary evil.

Palin back with Couric – This Time with McCain

Umm – was this supposed to help her?  Hands down, though, McCain was much worse than Palin. 

Oh, and it occurs to me – forget about the ‘gotchya’ journalism.  Did she not watch the debate where McCain took Obama to task for saying that?  C’mon – seriously…it was less than 24 hours earlier and was talked about ad naseum on the campaign trail and in the news.

Will Wall Street now Bail on The GOP?

The market closed down 777 points today – or 8%.  The figures I’ve been hearing state that this is about 1.2 trillion dollars worth of wealth that just vanished.  That 1.2 trillion dollars (nearly twice the bailout) is held by a lot of different interests, but particularly the Republican base – free market capitalists and the upper 1% income earners.  In addition, it’s held by the much heralded ‘Main Street’ and middle-class America.

So how does this affect the electorate?  Well, let’s get back to the Republican base vote again – the rich and free market folks.  The roller-coaster ride by the market over the last week has been tied directly to the potential passage of a bail-out bill.  The market reacted negatively last week to the failures of a deal getting done.  Monday’s big loss was a result of the GOP again not getting on board and nixing the deal.  The Republicans can claim all they want that the speech by Pelosi caused them to vote against the bill.  But the reasons don’t matter – whether ideology, feelings, or good intentions.  The World and Wall Street wanted to see this bill done.  The Democrats delivered 60% yea votes to the bill and the Republicans only 33%.  The GOP needed to deliver only 39% of the vote or 12 more (coincidentally that’s the exact number that the GOP claimed that Pelosi speech turned away from voting yes).  The problem for the Republican Party is no matter how much they hem and haw and complain Pelosi causing the rift, the bottom line is they couldn’t muster 39% (votes they claim they had, by the way…until ‘the speech’) of their caucus to support the bill.  Wall Street isn’t going to blame the Democrats.  Everyone knows the bill is unpopular and delivering 60% is very good in the spirit of cooperation of bipartisanship that the leaders were working with all week.

Do you think Wall Street will give the Republicans a pass on this since, after all, they support their ideology?  Probably not.  1 trillion dollars of wealth is not easy to swallow losing.  True, some of it will be made back after a proposal passes.  However, there is only so much the market will make up in a short period of times and continued large decliner days will just make recouping these losses harder.  With those losses, Wall Street will be looking to take their ire out on someone.  It can’t be the Democrats who, as much as they don’t want to support the investment community, knew it was right for America to support the bailout.  They came through and delivered the votes.  No, it’s the Republicans who are going to have to explain to their economic base that Pelosi’s words or an unrelenting ideology kept them from voting for this package.  If they can pin this on Pelosi (who I still blame in many ways for this mess today), then they will have been able to fool – not the average American who doesn’t understand what’s happening – but Wall Street (who are not your common fool that falls for political rhetoric).

But one might make the point that the reason they couldn’t support the deal was their ‘real’ constituency has been complaining nearly 100-to-1 against the deal (don’t forget, the Democrats were getting the same hate mail).  Here’s the problem.  First, there are a lot of Americans who don’t understand what’s happening and are looking to the President, the candidates, and Congress for direction and leadership – they didn’t get it today.  Second, people are against this deal because they don’t understand how it will affect their daily life.  That’s a bit understandable.  However, as loans continue to get harder to get, people start losing their jobs at a more rapid rate, people continue to lose their homes, wages continue to go down, their investments continue to lose value, and their banks fail – they are going to change their opinion of this deal very quickly.  The potential risks of not doing this deal are very real and will be very evident when they occur, most likely sooner than later.  Washington Mutual failed last week, Wachovia this week, there are rumors of another bank on the brink.  As more and more of the middle-class are touched by these events (or even hear about them) their opinion will change.  When it does, the Democrats will be exonerated in voting for this bill and the Republicans will once again prove they do not have the interests of the Country ahead of theirs.  I do think their leadership tried to get this to pass, but they either didn’t have the will or power to make it happen.

See, in a lot of ways the Republicans have just let the Democrats off the hook.  If the bill would have passed, in theory, money would have loosened up a bit and people wouldn’t feel the pain that this bill avoided.  People would continue to wonder if this was nescessary or not and the Republicans could have continued to attack the Democrats on having an itchy trigger to get something done.  Even if a bill gets done later this week and voters forget, Wall Street will not forget about the 1trillion dollar worth of losses.

The Other Side of Selfishness

“One, Representative Jim Marshall, a Georgia Democrat facing a re-election contest, told colleagues in a private meeting that he would vote for the measure to bolster the economy. ‘I am willing to give up my seat over this,’ Mr. Marshall said, according to another person who was there.”

– per the NY Times. That – my friends is a true representative of the people.  If you can afford to give to Jim Marshall’s campaign – he deserves your support.

Don’t RE-ELECT Pelosi (and I am a Democrat)! Don’t Re-Elect and GOP against the Bill

“We’re all worried about losing our jobs. Most of us say, ‘I want this thing to pass, but I want you to vote for it—not me.'” said Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis (note – see my other post for the most honorable quote of the day).  It’s great to see how ‘working for the people” means taking care of yourself first.  See, by re-election, they ensure they will draw a 169K salary per year – guaranteed for two years.  The recession won’t affect them directly and they won’t worry about losing their job – at least for now.  But, we are allowed to lose ours (25% of us during the Great Depression). It is abundantly clear that all of Congress recognizes the dire warning provided by many economists and investors, including the highly respected Alan Greenspan and Warren Buffett, to pass this bill.  Yet, they acted in their interest, rather than the People’s interest.

Every single last one of those who didn’t support it – Democrats and Republicans – should be fired…not re-elected.  Most Democrats supported the measure.  Good.  But those who didn’t, should feel the pain of most working Americans.  Let’s be clear, as Representative Paul Ryan stated, they believe it is necessary but they don’t want to do it.  Talk about not working for middle-class Americans.   It comes down to selfishness.  I truly believe that those who supported this measure would be rewarded in the end.  Regardless, most of these Congressmen have fall back jobs they can return to after Congress.  Most Americans, if they lose their jobs, will have trouble finding others.  If everything is as dire as the experts claim, than they are playing with the health of our Country for many years to come.  How many banks must fail – another one today in Wacovia – before they ‘get it’.

Sure, voters may be against the bill and they ‘listen’ to the voters – now, but not on many issues.  Sometimes you need to act in the best interest of the Country – especially when the issue is confusing and complicated.  But also realize, that those who are disgruntled about the bill, will significantly outweigh those who are happy when contacting their Representives.  There are plenty of citizens out there scared and want direction and guidance from our leaders – not more partisan fighting.   The only silver lining is that most of these representatives have significant holdings on Wall Street and the value of their assets are going down.  I am hoping that their pain will make them wake up, since they won’t operate in the best interest of this country, maybe they will continue to act in their self-interest.

Oh, and Nancy Pelosi SHOULD NOT BE RE-ELECTED.  To have worked in such a bi-partisan manner, to expect the Republicans to take a lot of this on the nose, and to have such a tenuous voting block and to come out and rail against the GOP and praise the Democrats? Sorry, that stupid, idiotic, selfish, pig headed and any other term for it.  There is plenty of time to play politics, but to do it with the fate of our economic and possibly social future hanging in the balance doesn’t make any sense.  She is no better than any Republican – including McCain who used this as a window for politics.

If you ever wonder if I’d call out a Democrat.  Well…here ya go.

This Election is far from Over and Obama is still the Underdog!

Things are starting to align well for Obama.  McCain’s erratic nature, the economic problems we are facing, Palin’s implosion, and the debate – among other things.

The latest Gallup poll shows Obama up by five and that about where all of today’s polls are, including the Republican biased Rasmussen poll.  Additionally, Obama looks like he is taking control of the Electoral College with predictions averaging about 286 Electoral votes as he has shored up some of his ‘leaners’ and now is trending in Virginia.

But it needs to be clearly stated:

1) 5% and 286 Electoral votes is a very thin margin (even though in this race it seems big)

2) 37 Days out is a lot of time still

3) Two presidential debates and, yes, a vice presidential debate are remaining

4) McCain has proven he is a ‘maverick’ and as if things get more desperate, he’ll become even more of a maverick

5) Bin Laden is out there and he’d love to play a part in this race

6) October suprises!

5% is not much of a lead, and while Obama is trending well, 286 electoral votes is one Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Ohio slip away from losing the election.  After the Palin pick and the GOP convention, there was about a 8 to 9 point swing for McCain in less than a week.  Obama swung 6 to 7 points right prior and during the economic crisis – over about two weeks.  It’s still very close and any major event could trigger another swing.  I am not sure a gaff or a swift boat issue could affect the election at this point.  It would have to be pretty large – but don’t discount the ability of the GOP to play anything up.  37 days is 5 weeks – sufficient time for two or three large swings in the electorate.

From some of the stories I’ve read across the blogosphere and news sites, there may be a Bin Laden play still to be made in October.  Bin Laden has been known to dabble in elections before – he did it before the Spain election several years ago.  I do recall four years ago, there was chatter he might be up to something prior to the last POTUS election.  Bin Laden’s potential October surprise could play out well for Obama or McCain.  But the better bet right now is for McCain.  In a time of crisis you turn to a leader with experience and demonstrated resolve to fight.  Right or wrong, McCain holds those credentials according to the polls.  Obama could make gains if he can tie a potential attack to a failed policy by Bush supported by McCain.

I truly doubt the debates are going to be ‘game changers’.  At this point, Obama can’t play a prevent defense in the next two debates.  However, he can play a little safer defense to ensure no gaffs (but that could look like a weakness).  I am very worried that the Democrats think they dodged a bullet with the first debate being on foreign policy and that they think they will absolutely win the economic/domestic debates.  McCain does well in the Town Hall format so he may gain some traction in the second debate.  If he can parlay that into good showing in the economic debate, he can make up some real ground.  McCain isn’t an idiot.  He will smarten up and focus his game better for both debates – but particularly for the economic debate.  Remember, he only has to do what Obama had to do in the first debate – show competence.  His team, right now, is probably drafting ‘middle class’ language and fleshing details he can utilize during the debate.  The Obama camp can’t underestimate McCain.  This probably wouldn’t turn the election around, but make it much closer and set McCain to pounce on any other opportunity.

I know, I know.  At this point, everyone sees the Palin/Biden debate as a joke – DON’T FALL FOR IT!  I’ve watched some of her debates from Alaska.  She didn’t have much more of the details back then either.  However, she did a great job of staying focused and connecting with her responses at a high level.  The bar is set so low for her that, if she can muster up some of her former self-image and ability to debate, she will be tough.  My money is on her doing A LOT better than she is expected – and that scares the hell out of me.  I truly believe that the media, the public, and the campaign are being setup right now. We’ll know ten minutes into the debate if my prediction is right or wrong.  If she does well, there will be another Palin bounce, another energized Republican base, and a very close race again.

Finally, if nothing else works – don’t discount McCain and what he would do in desperation.  We’ve seen the Palin pick and the suspended campaign.   Who knows what he and the Rovian Republicans will cook up to win.  This could include a massive slash and burn campaign that tells absolutely outrageous lies, brings back Reverend Wright in a new light, knocks Palin off and brings Romney on, coming up with a very covert and very organized fourth quarter rally, or even making race an issue.  You just don’t know.  All of those carry huge risks of not working, but if he thinks he is desperate and he can’t win otherwise, I think he has proven himself desperate enough to do anything.

The moral of the story is this – Don’t let your guard down.  Don’t stop donating, don’t stop volunteering, don’t stop talking, and don’t stop showing your support.  I really hope that the campaign is already planning for these contingencies.  They are very well organized and seem to deal with crisis in a very methodical process. But some of the events of the last week took them off-guard and as crunch time approaches and the pressure is on, they may act emotionally rather than intellectually.

This is an important.  Always think of Obama as the underdog – because he still is.  I don’t care what the polls say.  We’ve got all fight and work as hard as ever to ensure we restore honor and respectability to the White House.  This is a blog I hope you pass on to other Obama supporters and those still deciding.

My Thoughts on the Debate

I have no great insight on who the public thinks won or lost the debate.  Already the polls are pouring in and they are going to be the most important part of deciding who won the debate.  The early returns are that Obama won.    Things have been known to change when the spinsters start to grab the headlines, so that may still change.

Not shockingly, I thought Obama won.  Check that, I thought Obama did well and what he needed to do.  I do not believe either candidate hit a homerun.  I am from the school of thought that you typically don’t win a debate, you lose one.

Having said that, both candidates had goals coming in.  Obama had to prove he was competent enough to handle foreign policy.  McCain had to prove he could handle the economy and demonstrate he is a leader.

I believe these were the goals – not from what the commentators wanted to see, but what those who still had to decide wanted to see.

Obama never came off shakey on his answers.  Only on the meeting with foreign leaders of rogue nations did he even seem the slightest uncomfortable.  However, McCain’s plan to pound him on the surge did not work.  Overall, I think Obama hit his target.  There was no issue he didn’t have a clear response and was able to counter McCain.   McCain had to demonstrate he felt the pain of the middle class American and was a leader.  I don’t think he did particularly well on either point.

Where McCain did do well is being able to articulate clear foreign policy positions, demonstrate his experience and knowledge of areas of the World and World leaders.  The problem is that unless he could make Obama seem incompetent, it wasn’t going to be enough to change the direction of the election, particularly with the economy still being the front and center issue.

My two favorite ‘gotchya’ moments were both Obama’s.  The first was when McCain produced a bracelet from a veteran and Obama did the same.  The second was when Obama went after McCain directly on Iraq.

Just also remember, it doesn’t matter who wins or loses – per sey.  92% of this country has made up their mind.  There might be another 5-10% who are ‘soft’ on their support and will change.  The soft 5-10% are not probably going to change their mind on this debate.  There we no game changers.  So, that only leaves the 8% undecided.  Of those, maybe 1/2 will make their decision tonight.  So, to end game this based on this debate, I think that is going to be very hard.  Certainly, that will give who ever won a slight boost in the polls, but I think that almost would be mitigated as debate bounce by the time the next debate occurs.  The moral of the story is the dynamics of this race hasn’t changed.  That’s fine for Obama, but not fine for McCain.

We’ll know the real impact in a couple of days.

Debate Starting…

…I will provide my thoughts late tonight.  Although, I do not like CNN-HD’s coverage.  They are almost at the point of thinking for people DURING the debate.

McCain wins the Debate

If you haven’t heard – McCain is going to debate. He, apparently, has already won according to MyDD.com:

This is an ad already (oops) running in the Wall Street Journal.

Leadership at the White House

Per the Daily Kos:

“Yesterday, McCain swooped into the White House meeting, and by all accounts he said very little, was disruptive and Obama actually led the meeting (by questioning Paulson and House Republican’s). Now, how’s that for true leadership?

At the end, Obama had to speak directly to McCain to enunciate a response, after McCain sat silent for 45 minutes of an hour long meeting.
Why did he go?”