Perhaps the Most Important Reason I am Voting for Barack Obama – My Children

Before you have children, you live your life for yourself.  The decisions you make are based in what’s best for you.  But that changes when you have children.  I should know, my wife and I have three beautiful young children.  Once you have them, everything changes.  Your life is not your own.  This isn’t simply about losing freedom for eighteen years why you raise your family.  It goes to the decisions you make.  All of a sudden you want to save the environment because you are worried about your children’s world.  You save more money because you want to make sure they have everything they need growing up.  You change the way you live your life because you want to make sure you are there for them and give them everything you can.

You also look at elections differently, particularly in the world in which we are living today.  Rather than look at the short-term, your view becomes longer.  Who is the candidate that is going to protect my kids the best – with social programs, preserving the environment, defending our home land, and ensuring that the next generation grows up with better opportunities than we had.  If you have kids, you understand where I am coming from.  If you don’t, trust me, when you do – these are the things you will think about when you vote.

I’ve always been a Democrat.  My hero when I was ten years was John Kennedy.  When I was 16, I remember listening to Mike Dukakis the morning before the election talk about moving into 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue and watching him lose the next day and being devastated.  In 1992 after Bill Clinton won, I remember taking a solitary walk on campus to ponder what it mean that Clinton won.  And in 2000, the last election before I had kids, I was beyond devastated after Bush stole the election.

But in 2004 and now in 2008, the election has meant so much more.  I am willing to cross party lines if it meant the best future for my children.  Voting for George Bush was not an option four years ago.  The ire the world had for his politics, the dangers he created, and the disregard for the condition of the planet made my decision easy to vote against him.  As a Democrat, Kerry also shared my core values that added to my convictions.

With this election, I was a Hillary Clinton supporter.  I believed she presented the best policy positions for this country.  It was a difficult decision, as I watched people I respected like Ted Kennedy and Bill Richardson support Barack Obama.  When Hillary lost, I finally found the time to get to know Barak Obama.  Looking back, I wished I would have supported him from the beginning.

This election and this time is very different from most of our history.  With the possible exceptions of 1860, 1932, and 1940, this might be the most important election we face.  Our challenges are daunting, the morale of the Country is down, and our respect around the world is at an all-time low.  It scares me that my children are living in a country that has fallen so far over the last eight years – further than anyone could have imagined when they said, “So Bush won.  How bad can he screw it up in the next four years?”.  We now know the answer to that question.  We need a president who not only can speak to policy, but can give us hope while we spend years repairing the damage that has been done to our Country.  This is not the time for a Jimmy Carter, Gerald Ford, Richard Nixon, or Lyndon Johnson – or my hero Bill Clinton (the White House version – not the ‘on the stump’ version).   This is a time for a Ronald Reagan or John Kennedy.  We need a president who can uplift us, sell us on our future, and bring people together.  At the same time, we need a president who can progress policy to fix this country.

Barack Obama is that man, John McCain is not.  For the moment, leave policies aside.  John McCain, while he may have made a decent president in the mold of Johnson, Nixon or Carter eight years ago, he does not have the ability to unify and transcend politics and policy.   His speeches on the stump are not awe inspiring, they are not positive, and they do not talk to the greatness of the American people or the country.  Yes, he talks about his love for the Country and that our best days are ahead.  But do you feel moved when he talks?

Obama has the ability to inspire, to give us hope, and make us believe that our future can still be bright.  This is the gift that Kennedy and Reagan had, and this is what the country needs now – more than ever.

A 47 year-old man with two young daughters provides me clear evidence his priorities are the same as mine.  A 72 year old man at the end of his political career does not provide me any belief that he’s got my interests (or my children’s) at heart.  I know why Obama wants to be president, I am not sure about McCain.

Looking at the policies of the two candidates, I can very much say that Obama’s take a much longer-term view.  He does not want to fix the economy with quick solutions that create more debt and problems that are pushed to our children.  Obama doesn’t believe in ‘drill baby drill’ as a quick solution.  He believes in an energy solution that fully frees us from foreign dependence and protects our environment.  It’s clear our allies around the world believe Obama will restore the good name of the United States. In a world that is becoming more interdependent, that is important.  His belief that we should talk to anyone and find a diplomatic solution verse McCain’s belief in hawkish foreign poicy is the right choice to protect my children.  Obama believes strengthening our aging infrastructure so that the next generation is safe and secure.  He believes in maintaining the social programs that protect us and have given millions of people (including my grand parents) the ability to live the American dream. 

To me, the choice is clear.  It’s time to make a change. It’s time feel like there is hope again.  It’s time to give my children the gift of an America to be proud of.  It’s time to elect Barack Obama as our 44th president.  One more day and our future will be bright again.

The Liberal Crab’s Poll of “Poll of Polls” – 02 November 2008

Popular Vote

Obama – 51.1% +6%

McCain – 45%

Electoral College

Obama – 352

McCain – 186

Well, the most obvious thing to notice over the last two days is the increase in support for both candidates.  This makes sense as you’d expect some of the undecideds to quickly begin focusing in on their choice.  While the movement was nominal away from the undecided column (only .5%), the perceived trends continues with McCain picking up a larger share of that support.  McCain picked up 67% of the undecideds after picking up 56% yesterday.  Keep in mind, with the minimal reduction of undecideds (pool for analysis is small), the support will fluctuate.  Based on the latest polls and analysis, my election day prediction is that Obama will garner 50.7%, McCain 44.3%, Barr/Nader 5%.  The best news is even if the undecideds break to McCain, Obama’s continued ability to remain over 50% really means that the undecideds will not affect the popular vote winner.  Keep in mind, the biggest flaws in the polls is that they continue to measure against a two candidate race.   The third parties will garner 3-5% of the vote overall.  I continue to believe Barr is a more serious threat to McCain than Nader is to Obama.  The Real Clear Politics averages back that theory up.  I supect there will be a net -1% affect to McCain.  McCain’s got one day to make up 6%.  I do not think that’s going to happen.

Looking at the Electoral College, Obama lost a little support for the seventh of eight days.  All pollsters remained relatively stable except for FiveThirtyEight.com.  Nate Silver reduced his estimate from 344 down to 332.  However, based on the latest polls and projections and some analysis I’ve done via Pollster.com, I believe the final Electoral total will be much closer than most aggregators are predicting.  My final count now is Obama 291, McCain 247.  Why the big change from yesterday?  I’ve moved Ohio and Florida back to McCain.  Remember yesterday when my gut told me that those may not go for Obama?  Well after further analysis and thought, I believe they will be going to McCain.  I had a good conversation back and forth with Sam Wang from The Princeton via his comments section today.  I pointed to the fact that these aggregate models are great, but too much focus is put on the quantitative aspects and not enough on the qualitative.  I’d like to think to get ahead of curve here because we’ve been able to put an analytical spin on the metrics.  This is the same methodology I use in my ‘day job’ to analysis Earned Value metrics.  These candidate polls are all lagging indicators, I’ve always believed you need a little qualitative input to determine where things are going, when you are predicting the future.  This decision was as much a quantitative as qualitative.  Why did I make this change?  First, the polls have been closing (some rapidly).  In fact, if you turn up the sensitivity on the models from Pollster, the margins are very close.  These states all went to Bush in 2004 and there is very little to show that these statistically insignificant leads will hold up for Obama.  He may win one of them, but I am going to be conservative in my estimates.  I also have questions with Virgina, as those polls have been closing too.  However, there still a statistically significant lead for Obama and when pairing down the polls to the four or five with the best rep (leaving out Zogby), his lead is maintained.  If you were to take Virginia away, Obama would still be at 278 over the 270 he needs.  None of the other states appear to even be close.  Of course, McCain continues to play hard in Pennsylvania and the polls are tightening.  The difference in Pennsylvania and why I am not nearly as nervous, is Obama’s support is still at 51% and McCain has not been able to chip away from that number.  McCain is picking up undecideds.  He can pick up all the undecideds and still fall short.

Two final points.  First, I come from the school of being conservative.  The point is to understand the chances that a particular candidate will win.  This is a safe projection of the final tally.  Why give Obama the benefit of the doubt in states that went to Bush in the last two elections, the polls have been closing, and we don’t know how a ‘Bradley Effect’ may affect the vote.  Second, if Obama wins by the 6% projected here and in other polls, he will probably garner a lot more than the 291 EV’s.  I still believe there is a slight disconnect between the popular vote and Electoral College.  I tend to think the popular vote might be closer.  I didn’t move my estimates, though, because there is no data to suggest the national polls are wrong. Again, if they are right, then Obama will probably clear 300 EV’s.

Voting Guide

Two days left, unless you are doing early voting – check out ‘The Crab’s’ voting guide, print a copy on your way to the polls.

Repost! Obama Wins!

This a repost from an article I wrote on September 13th.  The forecast has been relatively accurate.  The blog has taken off and I thought this was a repost I wanted to share with all the new readers.  It’s interesting to read two days out:

November 5, 2008 – Washington, D.C.:

Barack Obama awoke this morning as President-Elect, after an evening that was less dramatic than one would have predicted two months ago.  With the returns in from California, Obama was declared the winner by all networks at midnight.  He swept through the Country with wins in states that have gone to the GOP the last two elections, including Ohio, Colorado, and Nevada.

The Turning Point

President-elect Obama’s win was less than assured after McCain had introduced Governor Palin as his running mate and a strong GOP convention in St. Paul back in September.  Governor Palin had taken a candidacy that was uninspired and wallowing well behind Obama and energized it.  The excitement, charisma and energy she brought to the campaign gave Senator McCain a much needed boost.  Coming out of the convention, Democrats were scrambling and pointing fingers at Obama, party faithful were heard muttering, ‘not again’, as the polls started to show McCain take a lead.

During most of September, McCain’s ‘maverick’ choice seemed to have hit the Hail Mary the candidate was hoping.  The Country and the media couldn’t get enough of her and she seemed to give McCain the boost he needed and a turning point that seemed to difficult for Obama to return.

As her star was rising, as was McCain’s fortunes, Obama didn’t take a knee-jerk reaction to events.  Similar to his approach during the primaries, he assessed and then re-engaged.  ”We had watched the mistakes of Kerry and Gore and were determined to take the time prior to responding to her presence and Senator McCain’s attacks.” Obama said early this morning.  The response?  Stay strong to the message, let the McCain/Palin ticket shoot themselves, and respond vigorously to ‘propaganda’ – but do not get in the mud with them.

As unpredictable as Sarah Palin’s rise was during the Convention and shortly thereafter, her fall was as much unexpected by pundits and media.  Looking back, she strengthened the base and did get evangelicals to the polls.  That, it now seems, was what provided the boost to the polling in September.  As the independents began to formalize their selection, Obama’s message began to resonate.

Except for one critical gaff when she stated that North Korea did not have the technology to enrich plutonium, she remained relatively steady and did hurt the campaign as many Democrats were hoping.  She did, however, continue to overshadow McCain and a,t times, it appeared she was running for President.

Obama’s tactic to stay on message worked.  ”We knew it was about the economy, stupid.  Too many Americans suffered too long and while they may have been tempted by Palin, when they looked into her record they realized she brought nothing more to the table than what John McCain had been preaching.” said Obama.  And in fact, that will be a big criticism of the McCain campaign – too long and too strong on attacks.  ”They forgot that while those tactics have worked in the past for Bush, he at least had policies to put in front of the American people.  McCain never gave the American people a plan and you can’t do that coming off of eight years of the same party and make the claim you are the agent of change.  Eventually people figured out it didn’t add up.” according to Paul Begala, Democratic Strategist.

It appears now that the best thing that could have happened to Obama, was Sarah Palin.  Not in as much as it forced the Democrats to not take the election for granted, but it blinded the media and particularly the McCain campaign.  Like a drug, it worked well early on to give the campaign a boost, but the more she was relied on to fixes the campaign’s problems; the more it hid the real issues facing the ticket.

McCain started realizing there was a problem late in September and started to develop a message.  During the debates, particularly the Town Hall, McCain began to articulate his message.  He won that debate after both him and Obama muddled through a draw in the first debate.  In the vice-presidential debate, Palin was able to hold her own with Senator Biden which was considered a win for her.  However, it had very little real impact in the polls.  Pundits believed this was a result of Obama and McCain taking control again during the debates and the voters recognizing they needed to watch the top of the ticket.

A Time for Change

President-elect Obama has a tough road ahead.  The latest unemployment numbers are highest they have been since 1980 and the economy has grown at an anemic .1% over the last quarter.  The time for change has come and the new President needs to get off to a quick start.  Already there is talk about cabinet positions – including Hillary Clinton as Secretary of Health and Human Services and discussions about bringing Collin Powell back to the State Department.