The Liberal Crab’s Poll of “Poll of Polls” – 03 November 2008

Popular Vote

Obama – 51.5% +6.8%

McCain – 44.7%

Electoral College

Obama – 347

McCain – 191

 

Well here we are, the eve of the election and the final Poll of “Poll of Polls”.  The final popular vote total is 51.5% for Obama and 44.7% for McCain, giving Obama a 6.8% poll lead going into the election tomorrow. Oddly, after analyzing the remaining undecideds and adding the Barr/Nadar/Paul third party factor, my final prediction is – 51.5% Obama, 44.6% McCain, 3.9% third parties.  Am I saying the remaining ‘undecideds’ in my poll are actually voting third party?  No.  I actually gave McCain 62% of the 3.9% of undecideds, based on his performance with them in recent days.  However, he is impacted by about 1% more by the third party candidates based on my analysis of 2-way and 3-way polls.  As a result, the final prediction matches the final Poll of “Poll of Polls”.

There was some odd things going on with the national tracking polls.  Despite the pretty radical differences in each of them over the last few days, they all ended up centering between 5-9 points.  There are some games the pollsters can play to make the results trend to the mean such as changing party ID.  However, the important point is that the pollsters who have a stronger reputation – Rasmussen and Gallup, utilizing their ‘traditional’ belief in who makes up a likey voter still has Obama with a comfortable 5-6 point lead (and some even larger).

As the National vote was tightening, the state polls were increasing their margin for Obama.  Now that the national polls have been increasing their advantage for Obama, ironically we see a tightening at the state level.  While the idea of a lag has been widely discounted, even here, since the polls are coming out more frequently, the fact is that poll trends (which is what the other aggregators use) are based on the current polls as well as some of the older polls.  In effect, there is still some lag.  Since the national polls have only helped increase Obama’s lead over the last three or four days, it’s conceivable the minor tightening is a result of the slight lag.  What would that mean for Election Day?  It probably means Obama’s state leads are a bit larger than being projected.  The aggregators have a mean in their evaluation of 347 Electoral Votes.  Based on the latest national polls, I suspect their adjusted estimate (if given 2-3 more days) would be back in the 355-360 range.  Based on the latest polls and my analysis, my final prediction is Obama 302 and McCain 236.  My map is as follows:

My analysis was based on several factors.  First, the latest polling trends.  Second, only including pollsters with good reputations.  Third, past voting trends in the state.  Fourth, level of support for the candidate above/below 50%.  Fifth, a general thought on the GOTV efforts in the state.  Florida has been trending back to McCain.  Ohio was on the edge.  It’s been trending back, slightly to Obama.  It’s close enough that if there is any impact from Palin’s ‘coal’ comments today, I could see that pushing it over to McCain.  Regardless, it’s within the margin of error and a state the Democrats have previously lost twice.  Missouri is close, but the GOTV efforts by Obama, I think, will make a considerable difference for Obama.  Colorado and Nevada show strong trends toward Obama.  Virginia appears to have stabilized out at about 4-5 points. Obama should be able to hold that lead.

More to come about what to look for tomorrow, as well as additional analysis.

My analysis looked at se

A Grandmother’s Belief and Hope in Obama

Just wanted to add my two cents to this blog for anyone who is still nervous about this election, who still worry that we will be disappointed once again.

I remember four years ago, working for Kerry, going to Ohio the night before the election to volunteer, and watching the returns election evening, and believing Kerry was winning, and then to have the rug pulled out from under us, which left us with four more years of misery with George W. Bush. My daughter-in-law went with me to Ohio with such great expectations, and then we returned home on the bus in tears … Kerry lost, he lost Ohio, the state we worked so hard in. THAT WILL NOT HAPPEN THIS TIME!

Well, I am here to tell you I’ve felt like most of you, and I’ve been worried, and I’ve been anxious, because this election is the most important election in my lifetime. I remember when John Kennedy ran for president, an
Irish-Catholic running and winning … could never happen. Well, we know how that turned out. It was a tough race, and I remember finally going to bed at two in the morning believing he had lost, and that Nixon would be our next president. Then my dad came in to my room and said “we won, we won!!” I’ll never forget that morning. Kennedy’s chances were so slim, and his win was slim, but he won. Barak Obama is doing so much better and in a better place than Kennedy was all those years ago.

The excitement I saw around Kennedy, I’ve now seen happening with Senator Obama. Only this time, I’m all grown up, and I knew that this time I could do something to help him win, and perhaps to win big.

So, I got off my “you know what” because sitting around worrying was not going to elect Senator Obama to the presidency. I had a purpose. I’m up there in years, I’m not worried about my future, but I am worried about my 6 grandchildren, who I love more than anything in this world, and seeing another Republican become president to potentially make their world and their future questionable, I knew I had to do something. So, I’ve gone to Virginia three weeks in a row and I’ve knocked on doors. I’ve done phone banking as often as possible. Doing these kinds of things is not in my DNA, I don’t like to make blind phone calls, or knocking on stranger’s doors, it’s not easy, especially when a phone is slammed on your ear, or a door is slammed in your face, it can shake your confidence, but that doesn’t matter how I felt, I didn’t do it for me, I did it for my kids and their kids. I worry about what kind of world I will leave behind. This was my way to maybe make a difference. Leaving them a safe and secure world is the most important thing I can do, and I hope and believe that Senator Obama will give our children the world they deserve.

I was phone banking last night, every space that could be used to phone bank was used, and the majority of the folks, and I had some good results with more people saying they will vote for Senator Obama. A not too many saying they will vote for McCain, that made my night.

It is 6:37 p.m. on the eve of the most important election in our lifetime, which means there still is time to volunteer. You can make calls for Obama, you can volunteer to phone bank. You can drive people to the polls who have no way of getting there.

Tomorrow, after I vote, I will go back to the Obama campaign office and start matching people who cannot get to the polls on their own with folks who have volunteered to drive.

If you can’t do some of these things, then drag someone to the polls with you, remind people to get vote, do whatever it takes, and we will have a President Obama on Wednesday morning.

We will not have what happened four years ago happen again. This is the time for Barack Obama, let’s make it happen!

Final Smear: Obama to Bankrupt Coal

Please PLEASE PLEASE get this out to folks.  I know I have some Pennsylvania readers  -this latest attack from Palin and the GOP may affect the results of Pennsylvania.

Just this morning Sarah Palin cited a San Francisco Chronicle article from earlier in the year that she claims demonstrates Obama’s commitment to bankrupting the coal industry:

He said that, sure, if the industry wants to build coal-fired power plants, then they can go ahead and try, he says, but they can do it only in a way that will bankrupt the coal industry, and he’s comfortable letting that happen,” Palin said. “And you got to listen to the tape.

The audio tape can be found here.

But in actuality the truth is somewhat different.  Yes, Obama did say,

“So if somebody wants to build a coal-powered plant, they can,” Obama said. “It’s just that it will bankrupt them because they’re going to be charged a huge sum for all that greenhouse gas that’s being emitted.”

But it’s the context and rest of the interview that tells the story.  The Obama answer was in response to a charge that Obama actually supports the coal industry.  Earlier in Obama’s response to what was quote above, Obama claimed “This notion of no coal is an illusion.” He affirms that coal will continue to be part of the future.  His bankruptcy comment didn’t simply apply to coal, but all industries who continue to create carbon emissions and have a negative envrionmental footprint.  He supports policies that will ‘fine’ industries and companies who don’t find better ways of capturing their emissions.  He advocates, as his website points out:

Create Millions of New Green Jobs

• Ensure 10 percent of Our Electricity Comes from Renewable Sources by 2012, and 25 percent by 2025.
• Deploy the Cheapest, Cleanest, Fastest Energy Source – Energy Efficiency.
• Weatherize One Million Homes Annually.
• Develop and Deploy Clean Coal Technology.

 This was a charge that was coordinated at Drudge, the GOP, and Newsbusters.com.  It is false and one last smear to try and affect the vote in coal producing states like Pennsylvania, West Virgina, and Colorado.

What Did Drudge Look like a Day before the 2004 Election?

Here’s a snapshot of Drudge the day before the 2004 election.  Just thought it would be fun to see how much has changed ,how much hasn’t.

Great Men?

Bill Clinton, George HW Bush, James Garfield, Harry Truman, Gerald Ford, Barack Obama/John McCain and The Liberal Crab.  What do these men have in common?  They are all left handed!  That’s right, three out of our last four (including Tuesday’s election) will have been leftys.  Some claim Reagan (he converted) and Herbert Hoover were also leftys.

Why do I bring it up? Well, first it’s a light hearted turn from every day political discussions, it’s an odd fact, and (as stated before) I am left handed!  Want another interesting nugget?  This year’s two candidates do not top the race for most lefty’s in a General Election.  Nope, that distinction goes to 1992 when Perot, Bush, and Clinton were all lefty’s.  Us leftys have it tough.  We live in a world made for rightys and who do not realize how much is geared for the right hand.  There is pride in being a lefty and little nuggets us lefty’s live for.

Just a fun fact to take some of the penultimate election night stress off.  Enjoy.