Random Return Thoughts

11:00 President Barack Hussein Obama

10:06 – Zzzzzzzz.  We are now in the Top of the 9th of a baseball game where the home team is ahead 12-0.  What’s left?

9:20 – Fox News is reporting NM to Obama!

9:18 – The idea of an African American President is starting to dawn on me and it is slightly emotional to see our country do this.  A year ago I would never have even thought it possible.

9:10 – Carville/Begala calling Florida for Obama, CNN is not.

9:06 – No Bradley Effect! Definitely proven not to be an issue.  Bill Bennett, a Republican, agrees with that.  WOW.  This is a big BIG deal.

9:00 – Night is going exactly has planned so far. BTW, don’t get to high or too low when it comes to EV count.  Obama will not get California’s vote until the end of the night.  Really, until he is above 250, the race hasn’t started.

8:26 – Great news with the pick up of Dole’s seat to Kay Hagan.  CBS makes the call

8:16 – Yeah.  Kerry wins his seat!

8:12 NH, another McCain hope called by ABC for Obama.  ABC now has called PA.  It’s falling into place as Obama needed.

8:08 Intrade way down now.  MSNBC calling PA for Obama.  Becareful!  They may recind.  CNN won’t call – neither will anyone else.  Things are looking a little better.

7:45 My intial gut is telling me, based on the exit polls and early returns – this is closer than we may have thought.  However, Indiana is showing well for Obama!

The Plea and Advertisement

While the popularity of The Liberal Crab at an all-time high (we’ve quadrupled our daily visitors in the last week), I wanted to advertise the site a bit.

Politics is a love and passion of mine and this site has been an outlet for my very definite views I have had  during this campaign.   This site will not go dormant on November 5th.  The site will transition to a place that will keep everyone involved with understanding the larger issues facing our Country and opinion as to the best way forward.  As has been the premise of the site, we will continue to present issues in a layman’s format with clear supporting arguments (with facts) to make our case.  I’d also like to make it destination for guest bloggers to present their opinions.

Please continue to check back, please continue to pass on to friends (word of mouth has been working well) and please use the comment section if you have thoughts and ideas how I can make the site more robust.  I am looking to move the site out of WordPress which will provide much more flexibility to design and content.

Finally, I am looking for guest bloggers, please feel free to drop me an email or a comment if you’d like to be presented on the site.  Again, thanks for everyone’s support – the site truly has grown in the last couple of months and I appreciates everyone’s visits.

Keep checking back as the site will be updated through the Election day.

Intrade Predictions

For those not familiar, there is a website (actually a few of them) that is a cross between the stock market and a gambling website.  It’s called Intrade.  Basically, the way it works is they are an electronic exchange for buying and selling shares of different events.  One event that is particularly popular is the Presidential Election.  The site shows how ‘trading’ is going at the Electoral College level and the popular vote.  Obama is ahead 364/174 in Electoral Votes and a 93% chance of winning.

I really like this site as an indicator how the election is going.  It’s been a place I’ve turned all election season for a calibration of the races.  What I really like is the agreement between ‘investors’ to find the equilibrium in the chances of a candidate winning a state.  I believe investors are probably the most accurate predictors of the future outcome and the significant number of investors should do a good job of focusing to a reasonable percentage.  In fact, some of the aggregate pollsters use the results of Intrade to help determine the outcome of their polls.

The stock market sensitivity to events is usually extremely fine and relatively accurate as to where the economy or world events are going.  The Electronic Market extension (as is Intrade is considered) is a great way for cutting through Parisian rhetoric and getting to a real idea as to where the election stands.  I don’t have the stats from four years ago, but I believe the site was relatively accurate.  As the day and night drag on, I would suggest popping over to Intrade to see how they are projecting the different states.

What Drudge Looked Like on Election Day 2004

As a comparison….

My Experience at the Obama Office in Bethesda, Maryland

For those curious, I spent most of the morning in Bethesda, Maryland making call to Democrats in Pennsylvania reminding them to vote.  I probably made about 125 calls.  60 of them were answering machines, 20 were no answer, about 10 were wrong numbers.  A few hadn’t made it to the polls.

The calls were either in the Pittsburgh area of Philadelphia area.  Of those who voted, 15 were for Obama and 2 were either McCain or no answer.  At least in these populated areas, the totals for Obama are about what you would expect his party support to be:80-90 percent.

The experience was great.  If you brought a laptop and phone, they set you up in one area. If you only had a phone, they’d give you a computer.   If you had neither, they’d give you a phone and a computer.  The software was very easy to use.  People ranged from being pleasent on the phone to slightly annoyed.  But the calls went well.  People of all ages really embraced their vote, if the voted for Obama – making jokes or screaming that they voted for him.

There was also more food at the office than you could imagine.  I finally left after 3 hours because the line to volunteer stretched out the door of the office and I figured I’d give someone else an opportunity to make some calls.

The Republican Spin Began Yesterday

Listening to many of the GOP supporters, they are already spinning a potential John McCain loss as a referendum on Bush, rather than a vote for Obama.  They are claiming that people’s vote for Obama is not a request for change to a more liberal based philosophy. 

You would expect them to make this type of argument, to save face and try to manipulate policy toward the center.  For that reason alone it’s important that Obama wins by a wide popular vote margin.  So, whether you are in DC, Maryland, or Ohio – go out and vote.  Regardless how blue your state is, the bigger the Obama win margin, the more mandate he has to ignore the Republicans.

At The Phone Bank

Currently at the Obama Phone Bank and it is packed.  No one is home..so lots of messages left.  Will update later.

Not even 6:45 and polls not open…but this blue state polling line is the longest i have ever seen

It is amazing to see the line over 200 people long prior to the polls opening in the very very blue state of Maryland. this says a lot for our democracy and hopefully a lot about Obama’s chances. I have never seen a line like this. it is usually 40 or 50 people. everyone is patient and happy. we are in a politically active area…but this is still amazing.

more to come later. I am off to a phone bank after voting. sorry for the typos…I am not a good blackberrytyping.