Dear Senator McCain – Please do not Start Apologizing in 9 Days

Dear Senator McCain,

In nine days, the American people will elect the next President of the United States.  The time after the election is typically a time for healing, a time for unity, a time for Democrats and Republicans to come together and turn the page on the nation.  With President Bush’s 30% approval rating, most of us are looking for the healing to begin as soon as possible.  Regardless of whether you win or lose, please do not apologize for your campaign.  Please do not try to play the role of healer.  It would seem too shallow, too contrived, too unbelievable to be accepted.

You see, regardless of the outcome, we already know who is the real John McCain.  You talk about putting your Country first.  You’ve said that your experience in Vietnam has tested you.  You’ve said that you are a maverick who works across party lines to get things done for the American people.  For the last two months, you have been everywhere – on our computers, TV, radio, in our towns.  We’ve seen as much of you as our friends.  We know your mannerisms, how you dress, how you talk, and much of your speeches- verbatim.  We know who you are.  We also know about your ethics and integrity.  We’ve seen them on the campaign trail.  Your philosophy has been simple – do anything possible to win the presidency.  You’ve lied to us about things like Sarah Palin being against the bridge in Alaska.  You’ve allowed hatred to be spewed against Barack Obama at your rallies.  You have not rebuked this anger in any overwhelming way to stop it from occurring in the future.  You have have showed a lack of sportsmanship and respect to your rival during your debates by refusing to shaking his hand, not looking at him, and calling him ‘That One’.  You utilized the most serious economic crisis in generations solely for political purposes.  You demonstrated your desire to gamble with our nation by choosing a candidate who is absolutely not qualified to be president – solely for political reasons and then lied by stating she is the most qualified vice-presidential candidate in a very long time.  You utilized tactics such as robocalls that you said were wrong in 2000.  You are using loopholes in your own ethics reform bill to stretch your funds.

Yes Senator McCain, we have sufficient exposure to know who you are.  You’d like us to believe you are still that maverick, still the man who puts our Country first, and still a man of integrity.  After the election, win or lose, you’ll apologize and try to heal.  You will claim that it was the heat of battle that caused your actions.  But I thought you were ‘battle tested?’  You might blame your advisers for leading you astray.   But who is in charge of your campaign?  You might even blame Sarah Palin. But who is responsible for that decision?   It is in trying times that we learn the true character of an individual.  It is then when the best or worst comes out.  Unfortunately, the evidence does not present a positive picture.  What it shows is someone consumed with themselves and willing to do anything to succeed.  You’ve talked about how different you are from George Bush, but your actions are no different from his.

You served our country admirably during Vietnam, and for that our Country is indebted to you.  I would not have the fortitude to have endured what you went through.  But that event doesn’t define you as a person.  Your life, and everything you do, defines who you are.  There is much good in your deeds, but your character is flawed.  To apologize after the election, would indeed be too shallow, contrived, or unbelievable.  For the last couple of weeks I thought you might start to show us a different John McCain – the one you showed at the Republican National Convention.  But you didn’t.  See, if you had done during the campaign, even at the risk of not being the politically correct decision, you would have still had my respect.  You always did in the past.  But like the way you ran your campaign, anything you do now will be interpreted as doing it for political reasons.  You have destroyed your reputation.  If you win the election, you will just be a soulless politician that is no different from all the ones you’ve railed against for years.  If you lose, you have absolutely nothing left – no credibility and probably no political career.  No Senator McCain, we will not cry for you.

-The Liberal Crab-

The Liberal Crab’s Poll of “Poll of Polls” – 25 October 2008

Popular Vote

Obama – 51.2% +7.9%

McCain – 43.3%

Electoral College

Obama – 364

McCain – 174

Saturday is a slow polling day, but the limited polling news continues to be positive for Obama.  His popular vote gap continues to increase.  Going deeper in the numbers, the amount undecided has remained steady for the last eight days at 5.5%.  What that means is one of two things.  Either McCain supporters are switching to support Obama or undecideds are flocking to Obama.  Why?  Under the theory that McCain supporters are going to Obama – if the undecided percentage remains steady, it means that candidates are trading the same voters back and forth with each other.  For example, if there are a total of 10 voters – 5 for Obama, 3 for McCain and 2 undecideds.  That means 20% are undecided.  If the vote switches to 60% for Obama (or 6 votes) and the undecideds remain at 20% (or 2 votes), that means McCain now only has 2 votes.  This scenario isn’t bad for Obama.  It means that independents are not breaking for McCain – at least not yet.  It does, however, mean that some of Obama’s support may be soft and the gains and losses by McCain and Obama will be exaggerated (a voter switching candidates has an impact on both candidates’ numbers).  This would mean the polling numbers are a bit more volatile.  If Obama’s support dropped to 49%, it would mean McCain’s would be up to 45% – a net 4% change (or Obama’s lead would be 3.9%, rather than 7.9%).

Under the second scenario – undecideds are flocking to Obama.  How would this work?  Obama’s total is going up, if McCain supporters are taking there vote away, but the undecideds remain steady – it means previous undecideds would have to be making up their mind and going to Obama, to keep the undecided % the same.  This means the polling is much less volatile, as changes are only affecting one candidate.

So which scenario is more accurate?  The truth is, without further analysis it’s difficult to determine.  My gut tells me that it’s the second – Obama is picking up the undecideds.  I believe it would be rare for a McCain supporter to drop McCain and go immediately to Obama, without a stop as an ‘undecided’.  Additionally, some undecideds must be making up their mind at this point.  The stats show no change in the undecided population size.  It’s much easier to believe that independents are trending to Obama and McCain is having difficulty maintaining his support.  Finally, there is always ‘soft’ support in a candidate’s numbers and this is probably what is driving McCain down.

My guess is that 1-2% of McCain’s support will come back as we move through the last nine days.  I am also going out on a limb and saying he’ll probaly garner 40% of the undecideds, as many typically break toward the candidate in the lead.  That being the case, I think the numbers will eventually firm up like this: Obama 52%, McCain 46%, Third Party 2%.

As for the Electoral College, no noticeable change and the map has basically remained constant over the last couple of weeks.  Florida is looking more and more like it could go to McCain, but the rest of the polling seems to be muddled with no real discernible change.  My guess last night was Obama would end up with about 330 Electoral Votes if things remain status quo over the next nine days.

Nine days is an eternity in politics, and much can happen.  But the final frame is coming into focus.  The only way things change at this point is through some rapid event that changes the dynamics of the race.  It’s basically out of McCain’s hands at this point.