The Liberal Crab’s Poll of “Poll of Polls” – 27 October 2008

Popular Vote

Obama – 51.2% +7.3%

McCain – 43.9%

Electoral College

Obama – 363

McCain – 175

 

Seven days out and the Poll of “Poll of Polls” is showing a relatively static race.  Obama remains at 51.2% for the third day in a row.  McCain nudged up for the second day in a row, today by .2%. Assuming a two person race, the undecideds are down to 4.9%   However, I believe a lot of that is McCain’s ‘soft’ support.  The true ‘undecideds’ are probably not going to reveal their intentions until Election Day (unless Obama’s Wednesday night address changes some minds).  The bad news first, if there is such a thing in today’s poll, is that for the second day in a row McCain was the only candidate to pick up movement from the undecided column.  Now the rash of good news – Obama’s lead seems very stable, he continues over 50%, McCain hasn’t made any real movement (he started this poll 16 days ago .4% lower than he is now).  He now needs to pick up over 1% per day to win the popular vote.

We did see some tightening at the daily tracking poll level by some of the pollsters.  Others showed a race that hasn’t changed.  We are continuing to see the polls start to drift toward a center – which appears to be at about 5%.  If I was to make a guess, I’d say that the polls will be at about 3-5% lead for Obama by Election Day (closer to 3% with Nader/Barr).  That means continued tightening and probably more upticks for McCain than down ticks for Obama.  I did an analysis of the Margin of Errors in each of these polls (at 95% confidence) executing the maximum and minimum of the MoE for both candidates.  Of the six polls reviewed, only two – IDB, Battleground showed McCain with the lead when the maximum negative for Obama and maximum positive for McCain is illustrated.  Obama’s minimum lead when averaging the six polls ‘worst case scenario’ is 2%.  His best case is 10%.  I average came out at about 5%.  What does this mean?  There is a 95% chance the Obama will win the popular vote by 2-10%.

Now the broken record report – the Electoral College hasn’t changed.  Let’s go beyond my poll and discuss what the state polls are showing and their impact.  If Obama wins Pennsylvania and Virginia, it’s nearly impossible for McCain to win.  New polls show Obama up by double digits in Pennsylvania and a strong 7-8% in Virigina, based on several new polls.  The only other option for McCain is taking Colorado, New Mexico, and New Hampshire.    Obama is leading in all three.  New Mexico and New Hampshire are relatively strong leads.  Beyond either of those, McCain must also win Ohio, North Carolina, and Florida – along with some much smaller battlegrounds.  He is either tied or behind in those three and most of the others.  Additionally, Obama is now within striking distance in McCain’s home state of Arizona, Georiga, Montana and North Dakota.