The Debate and Where do we go From Here

The debate was of two parts, this evening.  In the first half, McCain won by a mile.  Obama was flat and didn’t have great responses.  But the second half was a big comeback for Obama and McCain actually looked a little flat.  Overall, McCain did better than he had previously, but it was not the ‘game changer’ a lot of people thought it needed to be.  Personally, I think McCain’s biggest problem tonight was being too obvious.  His attacks were nearly identical to the script he has been peddling out on the campaign trail.  That allowed Obama to have some very good scripted responses.  Obviously the Ayers and Acorn connections were predicted.  But, it was the ‘raising taxes on anyone making 42K and up’ or “the fine on health care” that really gave Obama the platform.  And that was McCain’s problem.  For as much as he needed to be on the attack, he needed to do it in a way that was more of a surprise.  Attacking him in ways that have already been brought up in two or three previous debates was not going to affect the calm and collected Obama.  I think that Obama may have been off his game in the beginning because he didn’t know what to expect from McCain and didn’t want to be caught off guard.  When it became obvious that McCain was still McCain, Obama took the lead in the debate.

McCain did help himself a little bit tonight.  He appeared more authoritative on the economy.  But, even then, he preferred attacks on Obama over talking about his plans.  Obama stayed on message all night.  That afforded him another platform to advance his ideas with very little competition of ideas from John McCain.

Additionally, I thought McCain’s mannerisms betrayed him tonight.  I think you will be hearing a lot about how this compared to Al Gore in 2000 and George Bush in 2004.  When they thought they were off camera, they showed too much emotion.  McCain looked angry at times and even had a sigh thrown in there.  At one point when McCain tried to call Obama out on fines for small businesses that don’t provide health care, McCain had a quizzical response and a stunned look on Obama’s response.  Even in his delivery, his frustration showed so badly that he had trouble articulating some of his thoughts.

The election is not over, but it is over.  For McCain to come back, there is going to have be a truly structural change in the election that goes beyond McCain affecting the election.  For McCain to come back, he has to shift the momentum in probably at least 7-8 states.  That’s about 2 days per state – that’s not enough time to change that many states.  It’s not like he can spend 15 of the next 19 days in Ohio and win.  Additionally, Obama will keep pushing hard.  There are new ‘red’ states every day that are trending towards Obama.  Louisiana, for example, is one of those states.  McCain is also  at a money disadvantage.  

If Obama continues to remain effective in his campaigning and there are no surprises, he will win.  Beyond a surprise, I think the only issues that might register would be a Dem Congress/Executive Branch or ‘buyer’s remorse’ argument from McCain.   Those really will be the only things to slow him down, at this point – and it’s very possible that it could happen.  Obama needs to keep pushing, he needs to get a mandate by having the largest margin of victory possible.  Getting a majority, rather than a plurality of votes is critical.  But an Electoral College landslide is most important.

Finally, I think the results of all of these debates is telling.  Obama and Biden won all of them by about the same margin.  To me, that goes to more than being an effective debater.  That firm advantage tells me that the electorate is basically cemented in their positions.  There are undecideds, but they are breaking towards Obama also.

Quick Debate Observations

1) McCain won the first half.  Obama came back late – almost a draw

2) The Intrade markets shows strong Obama movement

3) Schiffer let Obama get the last word only once or twice

4) McCain looked angry

5) Obama was too cool tonight.

TLC’s Poll of “Poll of Polls” – 15 October 2008

Popular Vote

Obama – 51% +6.7%

McCain – 44.3%

Electoral College

Obama – 358

McCain – 180

Not too much change from yesterday.  Polls across all organizations remained relatively flat since yesterday.  The debate probably won’t show much change, either way, until Friday

The Smartest People in the World Endorse Obama!

An Open Letter from Nobel Laureates, including EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THIS YEAR’S RECIPIENTS: 

An Open Letter to the American People 

This year’s presidential election is among the most significant in our nation’s history. The country  urgently needs a visionary leader who can ensure the future of our traditional strengths in science and technology and who can harness those strengths to address many of our greatest problems: energy, disease, climate change, security, and economic competitiveness.  We are convinced that Senator Barack Obama is such a leader, and we urge you to join us in supporting him.

During the administration of George W. Bush, vital parts of our country’s scientific enterprise have been damaged by stagnant or declining federal support. The government’s scientific advisory process has been distorted by political considerations. As a result, our once dominant position in the scientific world has been shaken and our prosperity has been placed at risk. We have lost time critical for the development of new ways to provide energy, treat disease, reverse climate change, strengthen our security, and improve our economy. We have watched Senator Obama’s approach to these issues with admiration. We especially applaud his emphasis during the campaign on the power of science and technology to enhance our nation’s competitiveness. In particular, we support the measures he plans to take – through new initiatives in education and training, expanded research funding, an unbiased process for obtaining scientific advice, and an appropriate balance of basic and applied research – to meet the nation’s and the world’s most urgent needs.

Senator Obama understands that Presidential leadership and federal investments in science and technology are crucial elements in successful governance of the world’s leading country. Wehope you will join us as we work together to ensure his election in November.

Signed,

Alexei Arikosov Physics 2003 Roger Guillemin Medicine 1977 Peter Agre Chemistry 2003 John L. Hall Physics 2005 Sidney Altman Chemistry 1989 Leland H. Hartwell Medicine 2001 Philip W. Anderson Physics 1977 Dudley Herschbach Chemistry 1986 Richard Axel Medicine 2004 Roald Hoffmann Chemistry 1981 David Baltimore Medicine 1975 H. Robert Horvitz Medicine 2002 Baruj Benacerraf Medicine 1980 Louis Ignarro Medicine 1998 Paul Berg Chemistry 1980 Eric R. Kandel Medicine 2000 J. Michael Bishop Medicine 1989 Walter Kohn Chemistry 1998 N. Bloembergen Physics 1981 Roger Kornberg Chemistry 2006 Michael S. Brown Medicine 1985 Leon M. Lederman Physics 1988 Linda B. Buck Medicine 2004 Craig C. Mello Medicine 2006 Mario R. Capecchi Medicine 2007 Yoichiro Nambu Physics 2008 Martin Chalfie Chemistry 2008 Marshall Nirenberg Medicine 1968 Stanley Cohen Medicine 1986 Douglas D. Osheroff Physics 1996 Leon Cooper Physics 1972 Stanley B. Prusiner Medicine 1997 James W. Cronin Physics 1980 Norman F. Ramsey Physics 1989 Robert F. Curl Chemistry 1996 Robert Richardson Physics 1996 Johann Diesenhofer Chemistry 1988 Burton Richter Physics 1976 John B. Fenn Chemistry 2002 Sherwood Rowland Chemistry 1995 Edmond H. Fischer Medicine 1992 Oliver Smithies Medicine 2007 Val Fitch Physics 1980 Richard R Schrock Chemistry 2005 Jerome I. Friedman Physics 1990 Joseph H. Taylor Jr. Physics 1993 Murray Gell-Man Physics 1969 E. Donnall Thomas Medicine 1990 Riccardo Giacconi Physics 2002 Charles H. Townes Physics 1964 Walter Gilbert Chemistry 1980 Roger Tsien Chemistry 2008Alfred G. Gilman Medicine 1994 Daniel C.Tsui Physics 1998 Donald A. Glaser Physics 1960 Harold Varmus Medicine 1989 Sheldon L. Glashow Physics 1979 James D. Watson Medicine 1962 Joseph Goldstein Medicine 1985 Eric Wieschaus Medicine 1995 Paul Greengard Medicine 2000 Frank Wilczek Physics 2004 David Gross Physics 2004 Robert W. Wilson Physics 1978 Robert H. Grubbs Chemistry 2005

The views expressed in this letter represent those of the signers acting as individual citizens. They do not necessarily represent the views of the institutions with which they are affiliated. The  Medicine award is for “Physiology or Medicine.”