My opinion of Senator John McCain’s campaign is that it is one hate-filled exercise that is bringing out the worst in a lot of his supporters. However, occassionally there are bright spots. I’m not talking about McCain standing up for Obama when he was called an Arab. No, I’m talking about his supporters pushing back against the hate mongering going on outside of the McCain rallies. Let’s roll the video:
I don’t know if McCain’s people were truly behind the gentleman who initially confronted the hate mongers, but what was impressive was that he and a group of others were able to push out the bigots. Kudos to the McCain supporters and kudos to the McCain campaign, if they were responsible. Credit should be received, where credit is deserved, regardless of which side of the political isle you sit.
However, McCain and Palin have created a signficant problem with anger that has come out in these rallies. In order to demonstrate the repudiation of these idiots, they must strongly come out against these supporters.
We are now under 14 days until the election and the the end-game is coming into clearer focus now. There are two possible ways this election can wind down as win for McCain. The first is a cataclysmic event occurs in the campaign. Under that scenario, a terrorist attack, another stock market drop, or natural disaster-type event reshuffles the cards. The problem with this scenario is it doesn't necessarily mean that McCain would benefit. Through three debates and a steadiness during the intial days of the economic crisis, Obama has shown that he has the leadership skills to deal with such an event. Powell's endorsement gives him international 'cred'. McCain may still benefit from an international crisis, but that is not a forgone conclusion.
The second way McCain can get back into this race and win is through a systematic march through the Electoral College finding a narrow strategy to win the race. Under this strategy, there is a very real chance, being down by nearly 7% in the National polls, he'd walk away with the Electoral College but not the popular vote. So, how likely is it that McCain can win, assuming the current electoral maps are accurate? For my analysis, I am using the Pollster.com map. Currently, the map shows Obama with 286 Electoral votes in his column, McCain has 157, and 95 votes are toss-ups. Unfortunately, my blog will not allow me to include the embedded image.
The toss-ups include: Nevada (5 EV), Montana (3 EV), North Dakota (3 EV), Missouri (11 EV), Indiana (11 EV), Ohio (20 EV), North Carolina (15 EV), Florida (27 EV)
Obama is currently leading in Nevada, North Dakota, Misouri, Ohio, North Carolina, and Florida.
McCain needs to find 113 Electoral votes. Even if he was to win all eight of these toss-up states (of which Obama leads in 6), he still would need to find 18 more votes. His primary choice is to go after Pennsylvania and it's 21 Electoral Votes. The only other truly viable option is pull back Colorado (9 EV), Nevada (5 EV) and one more state (possibly Iowa). There are some other options, such as Virginia (13 EV) and Nevada (EV 5).
As is obvious, McCain has an uphill battle. His campaign has basically said his strategy will be to try and win Pennsylvania. If he is able to win Pennsylvania AND win all eight toss-up states, he will win the election. But, right now Pollster.com has a 13 point advantage for Obama in PA, and about three point leads in North Carolina and Florida. Those fall within the margin of error, but still shows that it's a dogfight.
Obama has a lot of advantages right now. He's got probably twice the money, leads in nearly all the toss-up states, leads in Pennsylvania, already has 270 Electoral Votes 'in the bank', and 13 days left. So what's his strategy for those 13 days? It's not running out the clock. His primary strategy is to continue to attack. He'll use his money advantage across all the toss-up states to get his message out. Additionally, he'll attack states like West Virginia, Georgia and maybe Louisiana that are still leaning McCain, but teetering. This will force McCain to spend time and resources to defend those states. Here's Obama's trump card - if things get tight, he can focus only on maintaining Pennsylvania. Pouring money, time and resources into Pennsylvania - if his lead begins to dissipate, this strategy should be able to stem the tide.
So, that goes back to McCain's to possible ways of winning - a cataclysmic change in the electorate landscape or a steady march. Looking at the facts, maybe McCain's best chance is a big event.
Great news today from the polling front. Obama had his best day in over week – or actually, McCain had his worst day. Obama remained static going from 50.4% to 50.5%. However, McCain dropped 1.2%. There are a couple of theories at work here. One is that the Powell endorsement has had a real effect. Today would be the first day you’d see that impact. The second is that McCain again bumped up against his ceiling and is dropping off. Since we didn’t see much change in Obama’s number, I tend to think it was McCain was bumping up against his ceiling. Now, don’t get comfortable with the new lead. This decline shows McCain’s ‘soft support’ and will ebb and flow based on the news cycle. For Obama, the good news is he remains at 50%. I’d feel more comfortable if we started to see some of the independent breaking for Obama and push his ceiling a bit higher.
All that being said, and as Racheal Maddow reminded me a few minutes ago, the only thing that matters is the electoral vote. Obama continues to lead with about 360 electoral votes. However, polls in Floirda and Ohio have tightened a bit. I am no polling expert, but as I keep persisting, I think tomorrow will be the day that will determine whether or not Obama’s slight dip in the polls will have filtered down to the state races.
The Liberal Crab 