Breaking: Polls Improve for Obama?

For the last couple of days, Drudge has been providing a ‘preview’ of several polls, including Zogby, the night prior to their release.  As of 10:30pm, he hasn’t put those updates on his site.  That would be an indication of movement back towards Obama and probably a result of the debate last night.

Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com made the same observations as I did.

The Liberal Crab’s Poll of “Poll of Polls” – 16 October 2008

Popular Vote

Obama  – 50.8% +6.3%

McCain – 44.5%

Electoral Vote

Obama – 360

McCain – 178

 

Obama’s lead decreased .4% since yesterday, but his electoral vote count when up by a net of 6 votes.  Real Clear Politics, which uses a straight average based on all the polls they include.  But the big change was in the Electoral Map where Pollster.com, based on my methdology for toss-up states, moved 16 electoral college to Obama.  The popular vote is getting slightly tighter, but the electoral vote continues to climb.  The general theory is that state polls lag the national polls, so we may see some tightening in the state polls in the next week.  The effects of the debate won’t be seen, initially, until tomorrow.

Boycott Drudge!

Ok, very quick post before I have to run and pick-up the family.  Drudge is even more over the top this year than in the past.  His sensational headlines typically don’t meet the fine print.  This morning he posted a headline stating Obama is planning a massive victory celebration, when in fact the article simply stated he had picked a place (as McCain has) to host his party.

Second, the headline this afternoon that states Gallup has Obama up by only two points is factually accurate, but not totally the truth.  Gallup is running three different sets of numbers right now:

Registered Voters – typically what has been used in the past for reporting (shows Obama up 9)

Likely Voters (traditional) – this is what Drudge is posting. This uses old algorithms to determine likely voters.  Obama is up 2.

Likley Voters (new method) – This tries to account for the massive voter registration and cell phone users.  Obama is up 7 in that poll.

So which one is correct? Gallup doesn’t know and won’t pick one.   ALl the pollsters are using an average between traditional and the new method..which would put Obama up about 4.5 points.  Gallup typically tracks with a bit of conservative bias (I think about 2 points according to Nate Silver and Pollster – I will check later tonight).  If that’s true, Obama is still up 4.5-7 points.

The cell phone users and new registrants are making it tough for the pollsters to determine who is going to vote.  Gallups traditional method is based heavily on whether you voted in the last election.  Obviously, that may not catch younger voters or new registrants.  

I am not saying the old method is wrong, but recongize it’s limitations.  Regardless, Drudge continues to be a shill for the GOP.  I’d stay away and go to Digg.com to get the latest news.

I apologize for grammar and spelling – will correct later (along with adding appropriate link references).  The headlines infuriated me and wanted to do a quick blog.

“Joe the Plumber” – His Income Math Doesn’t Work, oh – and is he Real?(updated)

**two updates: 1) Joe would buy the business for 250K and 2) Joe has ties to Charles Keating (aka Keating Five).  As I mentioned to my wife, Joe was going to regret being in the spotlight, all his ghosts are going to come out**

The Daily Kos has an interesting mini-expose on “Joe the Plumber”.  Research can be a little fuzzy right now as facts are checked, but what it looks like is the story being projected may not match reality.  First, through searching several Ohio databases, no Joe Wurzelbacher shows up as being licensed as a plumber.  Second, he does not show up as a registered Republican.  But, not so fast!  The Toledo Blade does turn up his name as Joe Worzelbacher with the matching address is a registered Republican.

But wait, it gets better. Actually, I’ll let the Daily Kos diarist say it in the most elequent way:

During last night’s presidential debate, we heard a lot about “Joe the Plumber,” also known as Joe Wurzelbacher, an average (ahem) Joe, who is really worried that a President Obama might raise his taxes. But does Joe really need to worry? Because if he’s the same Joe that ABC Newsidentified as Sam Joe Wurzelbacher, also of Toledo, Ohio, he doesn’t always bother to pay his taxes.

LUCAS COUNTY COURT OF COMMON PLEAS
J. BERNIE QUILTER, CLERK
700 ADAMS STREET
TOLEDO, OHIO

MONETARY AMOUNT: $1,182.98

DEPT OF TAXATION STATE OF OHIO

Defendant 1:
WURZELBACHER SAMUEL J
30 DERBYSHIRE RD
TOLEDO, OH  43615

There is a lot of talk now that Joe was planted by the Republican campaign.  Supporters of this theory point to the examples above, as well as the fact he is using nearly the identical talking points of the McCain campaign.  I tend to believe this was simply a Republican who had a serendipitous turn of events that put him in the spotlight.  The McCain campaign missed doing their homework, if he was planted, by not figuring out he owed back taxes.

Now, some other thoughts on this ‘Joe’.  First, he doesn’t own the business yet, so he isn’t being taxed for it.  Second, it is very unclear whether revenue generated by his business would be $250K or his profit would be $250K.  This is a BIG difference.  If he had a profit of $250K, then he would be taxed under Obama’s plan at a higher rate.  However, if he earned $250K as revenue and then subtracted out expenses (employees, trucks, building, supplies), he would be below the $250K threshold.  Joe Biden makes a good point, but one I don’t know if is accurate – how many plumbers make 250K/annually.   It’s plausible, if he worked 2080 hours a year at $120 an hour.  But if he had any expenses at all, he’d drop below that number.  I used a Consumer Checkbook survey of rates for local plumbers in the high cost of living area of DC to determining an average plumber rate – it came out to be $84/hour (based on the top ten reviewed plumbers in DC).  To make $250K at $84/hour would mean he would work 2976 hours – that’s 43% overtime or 11 hour every day for a year (no vacation/holidays).  I haven’t even adjusted downward for the cost of living in Ohio.  So, if he made $250K, it would mean he probably has at least one other person working for him.  The median income for a plumber is 38K year (giving him the benefit of the doubt as a junior plumber).  So, if that is true, he could be over the $250K threshold (2080 hrsX$84/hourX2 people= $349K).  Before expenses and other deductions, it would be about $300K.  But, remember Joe isn’t licensed, so he would have to hire an additional full time person.  This one, I will not give him the benefit of the doubt for experience.  A licensed senior plumber averages $51K/annually, which would put him at $260K of profit before other expenses.

To summarize, if Joe owned a plumbing business and he hired two people to work for him – one junior and one senior AND they worked at least 2080 hours (which means they would not get any holidays or vacation) AND had no expenses AND no other business deductions – he might clear $260K as profit for the business.  But there are expenses: supplies, licenses, vehicles, computer, building, utilities, cell phones, etc.)

Regardless, even if Joe’s story was true, 98% of the businesses in the Country fall below this $250K threshhold.    That would also be in the top 3-4% of wage earners in this country.  Finally, even if he was right at the 250K threshhold, he’d STILL pay less taxes. Why? Because our tax system is progressive in respect to only income over each bracket is taxed at the higher rate.  So all of Joe’s income from $1-$200K would get Obama’s tax break.  From $200-$250K he’d give you no break.  ABOVE 250K you’d pay additional taxes.  But since you are paying less for your first $200K, you still will be paying less right at $250K.