Why McCain’s Democratic Congress/Democratic President Argument is Wrong

One of John McCain’s latest arguments is that the country will be stuck with both a Democratic Congress and  Democratic President.  His logic is that, in doing so, this country will veer well to the left of the general populous.  Look, quite frankly, I can’t argue with that view.  I tend to be one of those well to the left of center and wouldn’t mind seeing the country go in that direction.  But, most of this country is center, and possibly slightly right of center.  McCain’s argument makes sense and should be dangerous to the Obama campaign to ignore.

However, I would argue that this is not the time to have a split Congress and Executive Branch.  This occurred to me as I was playing the roll of ‘typical’ Democrat and wondering what would happen if Obama lost.  The fallback is to take solace in the fact that the Democrats could still control the legistlative agenda, despite whatever fantasy land Sarah Palin lives in.  But here’s the thing.  Nothing would get done.  Even if Obama was to lose the election, the Democrats are going to pick-up a lot of seats in Congress.  They may even pick-up 60 votes needed for a super majority in the Senate.  They are not going to be in a mood to negotiate with McCain.  First, he is a Republican. Second, they will not forgive the slash and burn campaign.  Third, the bitterness from an Obama loss would sting too much to be bi-partisan.  The GOP is going to be at such a disadvantage in Congress, they will not be able to twist the Democrat’s hands.  Some might argue that the Democrats might play ball to protect themselves for 2010.   However, I doubt it.  I think after eight years of George W. Bush they are going to play hardball and force McCain to come to their position.

This is why an Obama win is critical.  This country is dealing was some significant issues right now, primarily on the economy.   This is not a time where Washington gridlock can exist.  I understand how hard a pill this is to swallow for a Conservative.  I can imagine how hard it would me to accept this position if the roles were reversed.  But Washington needs action, needs to be dynamic in the very quickly changing World financial picture.  Look, even if you don’t agree 100% with the Democrats – this country needs real action in the short term.  Right now, everyone tends to be thinking a little more to the left than they normally would – increased regulation, more bailout for Wall Street and Main Street.  The focus would be strongly on the economy and would be the pressing/overriding  issue during the first year of an Obama administration.  By the second year, all of the House would be up for re-election and 1/3 of the Senate would again be up for election.  That would continue to force the Democratic Congress to govern from the center, rather than the left.  If I was a intelligent Conservative, I’d realize if the Democrats push too much to the left, 2010 would be a referendum on that policy and the GOP could make big inroads back into the Legislature.

This country cannot take anymore gridlock.  The economy is issue #1, everyone agrees.  So the question is, how can you most effectively fix that economy?  By ensuring no gridlock, at least we’d have a fair chance at doing the right thing to get the economy fixed.  Sure, most Republicans will say this is a ploy to implement a Democratic agenda.  They could be right, but I can guarantee that a Republican President and a strong Democratic-leaning Congress will simply make the problems worse.  Two years is a not a lot of time.  If it doesn’t work, then vote the bums out in 2010 and vote Obama out 2 years later.

The Liberal Crab’s Poll of “Poll of Polls” – 24 October 2008 (Updated)

Popular Vote

Obama – 50.9% +7.7%

McCain – 43.2%

Electoral Vote

Obama – 365

McCain – 173

 **Update – I did a review of the latest polls in all the competitive states, thanks to Nate Silver for making it easy to review.  As a financial analyst, I am more interested in taking away trends.  Look at the mean for the aggregate.  Then look at the trends of each poll – are they tightening or expanding?  Based on that type of analysis and only looking at the most recent polls, I’d put 343 Electoral Votes in Obama’s column.  I wouldn’t take Ohio, Virginia, or North Carolina away from him.  But Florida shifts to McCain, from the general consensus across most aggregate pollsters.  None show very strong trends toward McCain.  Ohio seems muddled.  Some of the pollsters who have been in their show the race tightening, others show the lead growing.  New pollsters in Ohio are showing both McCain and Obama strong.  Very tough to tell.  North Carolina is simply a very close race, but slightly favoring Obama.  Same, as far as I can tell, it’s been for all of October**

At first glance the Poll of “Poll of Polls” shows an improving forecast for Obama, particularly in the Electoral College.  After some fluctuation, the popular vote polls are steadying with Obama at 50% and McCain 43%.  Unfortunately, 7% undecideds remain pegged at that number.  The good news is even if they broke mostly for McCain, Obama would still win the popular vote.  As I’ve said before, Obama will most likely win the popular vote at this point – regardless of winning the Electoral College.  The only real interest in the popular vote is to be a leading indicator of some dynamic change in the race that will toss the Electoral College into a realignment that may favor McCain.  Heading over to the Electoral Vote graph, Obama had his strongest EV standing since the poll started 13 days ago.

Ok, so what’s the down side?  Some of the latest polls in North Carolina, Florida, New Hampshire, and Ohio are showing a very tight and closing race.   This could be the boost McCain may need to get back into the race.  However, before crying the ‘sky is falling’, there are a lot of things going for Obama.  First, he could lose all those states, and still win if he holds the remainder he is ahead. Second, McCain actually needs to win, right now Obama still has the lead or everything is within the margin of error.  Third, he continues to hold a strong popular vote lead and is banking early voters every day.  Add that to his money, and he is still in control.  There were some positive polls for Obama at the state level too.  How this all plays out will take a few days to see. By the nature of my poll, it is very slow to react to new data if it is much different from the norm.  The good part is that statistical noise is minimized and a few outlier polls will not affect the result.

Obama’s position is strong – but the message to vote, volunteer, donate, and talk is as important as ever.  There is only ten day left!!

Wow – Am I a Seer? (tooting my own horn part II)

I wrote an article on 13 September that was representative of an article that would be written after the election – November 5th.  I knew the article was holding strong, but I didn’t realize how accurate it still was. Here are some points from the article (written when Obama was down in the polls and sniping had begun):

1) Obama would not get in the mud with McCain, he’d continue to stay on message

2) Focus would be soley on the economy (this was before the collapse)

3) Palin’s star would fall but the GOP would continue to focus on her as the hope

4) Collin Powell would be a supporter of Obama

5) Obama stayed cool and collected and didn’t rush to being ‘erratic’ when things weren’t looking so good

6) Palin would hold her own in the VP debate

The only thing I was really off was maybe Obama was a little stronger in the debates and I mentioned one Palin gaffe – rather than a whole host of them.

Anyway, interesting read:

https://theliberalcrab.wordpress.com/2008/09/13/obama-wins-looking-into-the-future-at-an-article-from-november-5th-2008/

I also predicted the election wouldn’t be as close as initially expected.  Who knows if that will be true. But six weeks ago, I didn’t hear anyone saying that and today, Obama stands with a 7-10% lead and potentially up to 400 Electoral Votes.  Hmm, I may be right again.