The Liberal Crab’s Poll of “Poll of Polls” – 29 October 2008


Popular Vote

Obama – 50.4% +6.1%

McCain – 44.4%

Electoral College

Obama – 360

McCain – 178

Very bizarre night.  I couldn’t get my polling numbers until after midnight, then my computer lost my data file, and the editor for the blog is acting funky.  Anyway, on to the analysis.

This was Obama’s third worst polling day and tied for his worst day-over-day drop (.7%).  On the surface it looks like there isn’t a lot of good news for Obama.  Any good news, probably not?  But, the ‘ok’ news is two fold.  First, this is the third day in a row where McCain’s support has been flat.  That is never a good sign when you are trying to make up ground with so few days left.   Second, Obama’s drop did not correlate with a McCain gain.  What does that mean?  It means Obama lost some support but it wasn’t picked up by McCain.  These voters are still considering Obama and may constitute some of his ‘soft’ support – similar to what we’ve talked about with McCain.  He is still .2% above his lowest number over the last 17 days.  McCain now has five campaigning days left to gain 6 points.  That’s 1.2% per day.  Since the polls started tightening over the weekend, he’s only gained about .36% per day.  If there is closing, though, this rate will probably accelerate as undecideds start making their decision.  But still, 1% each day may be tough.  Additionally, these trackers are either 3 or 5 days worth of polling.  Which means each day is worth about 1/3 of the poll numbers.  Most polls were flat today and some of Obama’s strongest numbers from early in the weekend have dropped off.  What that means is that we’ll probably see no change in the polls tomorrow or a slight uptick for Obama – I’ll leave all the math reasoning out, for now.  If that premise is right, McCain will have not made an impact for yet another day.

The Electoral College tells a whole different story.  We *still* see no tightening in the state polls.  I have professed the ‘lag’ theory in state polling, which means it takes some times for national poll tightening to occur at the state level.  That has changed a bit as we reach the final stretch of the election.  There were 45 new state polls out today.  This is different from a couple of weeks ago when there might be 4-5 per day.  Polling is much more real-time now.  The point?  Have confidence that the race is about where the Electoral College says it currently stands.  As my graph shows, it really hasn’t changed in 17 days.  I still maintain you will see a drop to the 340’s sometime in the next few days.  I believe North Carolina and Missouri will probably drop out of Obama’s column.

Looking at the individual state polls, the news is nearly all good for Obama.  He is growing his leads in Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada.  He seems to be growing a decent lead in Ohio and gaining more ground in Florida.  Pennsylvania’s new polls shows double digit leads for Obama.  Virginia continues to remain a solid high single digit lead for Obama.

So how can the national polls differ from the story in the Electoral College?  Well, the most common theory is that the red states are getting more red.  Obama’s support is enthusiastic and strong.  He is already over 50% and his base is strongly with him and planning to vote.  McCain is reacquiring his ‘soft’ support.  Much of this is in ‘red’ states.  I suspect if you had polls out in Texas, Utah, and Oklahoma, you’d see his leads getting stronger.  Somewhat offsetting that is Obama’s small, but improving, positive position in key battleground states.  That’s why Obama’s numbers remain stable, while McCain’s improve.

Here’s the warm fuzzy picture:  Obama will win all Kerry states – 253 Electoral Votes.  He will also pick-up Iowa – 260 Electoral Votes. At that point, he needs ten more.  He can take Virginia, where leads about 7.  He can take a combination of (two of three) Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico – where he leads all by about 7 points.  He can take Ohio where he leads by about 6 or Florida where he leads about 4.  He could also still take Missouri or Indiana – both basically toss-ups.  Or, he can come from slightly behind in North Carolina.  The moral of the story is that if he holds Pennsylvania (which is about a ten point lead), he will win.

I am just not sure how McCain can come back in the Electoral College in five days.  However, it is politics and anything can happen.  Finally, if there is any ‘bump’ (and I think there will be one) from tonight’s Obamamercial, we won’t see any real effects until Friday and won’t fully be in the numbers until Sunday.

The Importance of “Selling Obama”

Tonight’s half hour program ‘presented by BarackObama’ is more than a ‘luxury’ as some have stated (or as Elizabeth Hasslback commented – ‘repulsive’). Some have even argued that it is a risk.  However, this program may go down as single most memorable moment of the campaign.  Not because he will have moved mountains and it’s impact will not be fully realized until after November 4th.

In 1980, Ronald Reagan was trailing Jimmy Carter by 8 points in October.  They had one debate on October 29th (same as tonight).  On November 4th(same date as this year),  Reagan won by 10 points.  With that debate, Reagan was able to sell the American people on his vision and that he was a safe choice for president.  Sound familiar. 

Leaving out the irony of dates, Obama has the same chance tonight.  His campaign is going well, but some have argued that he hasn’t closed the ‘deal’ yet.  Tonight he gets 1/2 hour to make his case.  No direct rebuttal time by the GOP and very little chance of McCain doing the same (although, I wouldn’t be surprised for him to try to pull that rabbit out of the hat).  I’ve been an absolute avid poll watcher. I’ve analyzed every little tick and campaign event.  What is clear is that every time that Obama has a chance to get in front of the American public – he does and extraordinary job of building support. The Democratic Convention and debates are two prime examples.  People want to believe in him and he actually has the qualities one looks to believe in.  However, so much time by the McCain campaign has been spent attacking his character – his campaign gets distorted.

The polls won’t pick up any change in the support levels until at least Friday.  Most likely it won’t be until Sunday. However, this will make a difference.  I do not believe that it will be an 18 point swing for Obama, but it will be 2-3 points.  This will be enough to swing the toss-ups strongly into Obama’s column.  Obama has a knack for getting a bump when he need it.  Tonight will probably bring the same.

Some argue there is risk in doing this event.  Perhaps, but the risk is minimal and the reward could be great.  Some argue that this isn’t 1980 – the candidates are better known, there isn’t an incumbent in office, people won’t watch, and there are many sources for information.  However, because of all the media attention, it sometimes difficult to see who these candidates are – not filtered with the opinion of their rival.  Tonight, Obama will present himself how he’d present himself in the White House – that, alone, will be reassuring.  Beyond that, the ability to consume at least one, if not two, news cycles will be critical in a campaign where McCain needs the attention every day. Finally, the intial network audience might be minimal, however, the replays on youtube and the news sites will be continuous.

Personal note of Support

Jimmy Buffett, the head of the Parrot Head movement, for which I am a loyal flock member, announced a free Barack Obama concert on Sunday:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/29/jimmy-buffett-to-sing-for_n_138806.html

Just a little light hearted note.

The Case for Senator Barack Obama for President

Through the primary season, I had a much difficulty deciding whether I would support Senator Clinton or Senator Obama.  On one hand, Senator Clinton impressed me with her policy knowledge, intelligence, and pedigree.  On the other hand, Senator Obama’s famous oratory skills, comparisons to Jack Kennedy, and the powerful endorsements had given me pause to consider him.  In the end, I put my support behind Hillary Clinton.  My instincts told me that policy credentials were more important than breathless speeches.  Part of the problem was that I didn’t pay close enough attention to the primaries, I knew that I’d support the Democratic candidate either way and felt there wasn’t much difference between them.

Once Hillary lost, I started to make myself familiar with Barack Obama. What I learned about him changed my opinion tremendously.  Not that I had anything negative to say about Obama, but the assets I thought Clinton brought to the table, in many ways were matched by Obama.  He is truly a gifted speaker and one that can transcend policy discussions and make America feel good about itself.  But he is also a extremely intelligent and has a firm grasp on policy matters.  Beyond that, he seems to inspire people.  I am sorry, regardless of your view on Barack Obama, you’ve got to recognize and accept his ability to inspire – just like Ronald Reagan.  Rallies of 100K plus (particularly when McCain on the same day can barely draw 1K), millions of donations averaging $86/ea blows away anything the Republicans have been able to do with their deep pocket donors, and he’s had the ability to nearly make race a non-factor in this election.  He’s even more inspiring, in many ways, than Bill Clinton.

At the end of the day, however, this is not the reason you support a candidate.  Platitudes are nice, but they will not affect the change to make this Country be the best in can be – it’s a catalyst, but not the reason.  His ability to lead will be his most important asset over the next four years.  The best example of this leadership is his campaign.  Sarah Palin can mock his community organization or dismiss the ability to run a campaign as leadership.  However, very few will deny this is one of the smoothest and best run campaigns in history.   It hasn’t made many mistakes, is extremely well organized and coordinated, anticipation and reaction to events have been accurately measured, and despite it’s size, the ability to talk with one coherent voice has been impressive.

Leadership is extremely important. I believe the role of the President begins with leadership.  He needs to have a set of core values that are appropriate and meet my philosophical leaning.  However, a President cannot be an expert on every subject.  And where he is an expert, he cannot spend the time to go into the details at such great length that it takes away from his ability to stay focused on all issues.  What he needs is the best set of advisers on every subject.  Ones that will provide an accurate picture of an issue with appropriate options.  The President must be able to be objective and critical when working with those advisers – it’s his ability to get the best out of his team.  Through the campaign Obama has surrounded himself with the right advisers – from Paul Volcker to Warren Buffett on the economy.  On Foreign Policy he has supporters and advisers such as Tony Lake and Colin Powell.  Those are the type of people you want to advise you on the important decisions.

Beyond that, leadership is understanding the appropriate way to react to issues. There are very few times in this campaign where his reaction what incorrect.  You want a President who doesn’t jump to conclusions, gets hot headed, or makes a decision without all the facts. Compare John Kennedy and Cuba to George Bush and Iraq.  Kennedy’s response was measured, patient, and made with facts.  He questioned to ensure he wasn’t being railroaded by any stakeholder.  Bush, reacting to information without proof, attacked Iraq in support of finding Weapons of Mass Destruction.  Can you imagine Bush and Kennedy swapping crisis?  We’d not be in Iraq right now, if Kennedy was President.  Oh, wait, we’d be non-existent because Bush would have ‘nuked’ Cuba.  When Obama was down in the polls – he didn’t over react.  He kept to his plan.  When the economic crisis hit- he didn’t react right away.  He collected his advisers and came up with a sensible solution.  A leader should also challenge the status quo.  It should challenge our policies – such as the infamous Bush Doctrine or sitting down with enemy leaders.  It’s not that we change the policy, but broach alternatives, vet, and engage in the right solution.  Obama does that.

Finally, a leader should encourage and not discourage.  A leader should be positive, not negative.  This is true to his constituency and his role as a leader around the World.  Obama’s campaign of change and tone of his campaign are positive.   To be inspirational when the morale of the country is down, is important.  To show and rally our greatness is imperative.

Beyond his leadership qualities, his policies are what this country needs.

Obama and McCain agree.  The middle-class has been ignored over the last eight years.  Wages have gone down, debt gone up, and unemployment and 16 year highs.  The difference is that Obama has real help for the middle class. His tax cuts are aimed and returning more money to the pockets of those with minimal or no disposable income.  McCain’s tax cuts are negligible until you meet the higher income brackets.  Beyond the discussion of whether supply-side economics work, is the basic belief I hold that this country cannot move forward without EVERYONE being a part of the success.  And yes,  that means redistributing wealth – so let it be. The rich will still be rich.  The middle-class will still be the middle-class, and the poor will still be poor.  But here’s the thing – the middle-class and poor will be helped greatly by Obama’s plans.  See, in a global economy that is extremely competitive – you need EVERYONE – all 300M Americans working to push our society forward.  You cannot go forward if the middle class, and particularly the poor, are disillusioned and feel hopeless.  A society that breeds exaggerated economic classes cannot survive. I am not a socialist.  I am not a communist.  I do not believe in leveling the playing field or income.  But giving folks the opportunity, the hope, and the desire to succeed is a powerful tool to make all of us live better lives than the previous generation.  It, quite frankly, has been the American way.

HealthCare is an imperative.  It is reprehensible that we live in the greatest society in the World and with the best medical care and technology, but 50M+ of our fellow Americans are without health care.  I’m sorry, but there is not excuse.  Whether it is expensive or not, we must have a program that covers every individual.  McCain’s plan basically creates a free-for-all. You have health care through your employer – great.  If not or want to change, here’s a credit.  Except, it still makes it unaffordable (leaving aside Obama’s concern with taxing the benefit).  I am currently going through open enrollment with my employer for health care next year.  I will pay a premium of 12K, my employer 9K = 21K for health care for a family of 5. How does a $5000 tax credit (offered by McCain) offset the $16000 I still have to pay?  Obama believes in work coverage and setting up a pool for those who can’t afford it.  McCain’s claim of an Obama ‘fine’ for employers who don’t offer health care?  Well, that simply McCain’s term for putting into the pool money to help those who are not offered work based health insurance.

The Supreme Court is a huge concern.  Right now the Court leans, by a 5-4 margin to a Conservative ideology.  Expectation is that three liberal Justices may retire – Stevens, Ginsburg, and Souter.  A McCain administration could potentially put the court at an 8-1 advantage to Conservative ideology.  It would be at least 20-30 years of policies far to the right of center.  Beyond abortion, every single social issue that the Christian right and deep conservatives have been railing for will occur.  These issues include a gay marriage ban, increased gun ownership, and reduction of social programs,among others.

On international policy McCain will absolutely follow Bush’s policy.  He will not talk to some foreign leaders, he believes in the Iraq policy, and has a hawkish outlook.  Where’s the difference? Beyond those views,our standing in the World is at an all-time low.  Electing McCain will not change that.  The World wants Obama.  November 5th, our view around the world will improve tremendously – in one day.  I agree we should talk to everyone.  Without diplomacy, you cannot affect change.  Iraq was a wrong decision and we need to get out and save our brave soldiers.  I want a leader who’s gut reaction isn’t to flex our muscle, but understand and work through the issue.  We don’t need unnecessary stand-offs with Balkan states.  We don’t want to encourage Korea and Iran to become more isolationist.  Despite the GOP rhetoric, I believe Obama fully supports Israel.  He recognizes the importance of the state as an ally and the counter-balance in the region.  I also want a leader who understands that to solve our energy problem and environmental problems – we must work internationally. Someone who doesn’t profess ‘drill baby drill’ – but recognizes that type of rhetoric only emboldens OPEC because our alliance on oil is not reduced. We cannot solve the climate problem without a wide ranging agreement from China to Canada to Russia and the United States.  If Palin plays a role in energy and environmental policy, she cannot be elected.  Her views on global warming and true lack of understanding of energy policy (beyond how it affects Alaska) would be wrong for this nation.

Obama’s plan for energy – to utilize many different sources – is the right approach.  It’s one I’ve believed in for the last fifteen years.  The lowest cost, best environmental solution would be one that takes advantages of the assets in each part of the country.  Less shipping of energy, less disruption on the environment, cheaper to produce.  Wind energy in the Plains. Clean coal in Appalachia, Natural Gas out west.  Hydro on the coast, and offset with nuclear where needed.  Obama doesn’t go all the way there, but it certainly better than McCain’s philosophy.

On social issues – Obama is correct. I believe everyone has the right to live their life as they see fit.  Do not encroach on my rights, and I will not encroach on yours.  Gay marriage, abortion, free speech, protection of our right to privacy, and even moderate gun control are issues that are important to the fabric of this nation.  Openness to social issues is an inclusive policy.  As our country becomes more diverse, we need to be open and accepting.  Closed minds or limiting choices will continue to separate parts of our society – particularly the minorities.  This country has always stood for freedom.  How dare the Republicans control our choices.  Obama may be to the left of other Democrats on social issues, however, to undo the damage done over the last eight years – that’s exactly what we need to be in order to center this country again.

On economic issues, Obama takes a centralist approach that is appropriate.  Regulation is important.  Free market, left to their own devices will work only for themselves.  We have seen that result.  I actually railed against this during the Clinton years in my college senior thesis.  McCain still doesn’t believe regulation is good. Obama does.  I do not believe he wants to over-regulate.  But he understands that checks and balances are important.  Obama’s support to an additional stimulus package and support of social programs are imperative for a well functioning society.  It was the New Deal that brought this country out of the last major crisis.  It were those social programs that continue to allow the ‘American Dream’ to be realized.  Without them, people would be starting at such a disadvantage, the divisions between the haves and have nots would get much deeper.

Obama is, overall, a centralist.  He is a thinker with left-leaning values but an understanding that this country is in the center. That is why the election is close, not because Obama is black.  He has shown significant and a diverse number of advisers – some Republicans and some Democrats. He truly loves this country – I believe that – and will do what’s right by the country, not him. He grew up from modest roots, unlike McCain.  McCain may have felt that way, but the way he has run this campaign shows, at the very least, his motives will always be suspect.

This is why I support Barrack Obama. Not simply for party loyalty, but for the ‘change he brings’.